essays and lectures-第8章

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is　insecure。　　Plato　had　pointed　out　before　how　the　extreme　liberty

of　a　democracy　always　resulted　in　despotism；　but　Polybius　analyses

the　law　and　shows　the　scientific　principles　on　which　it　rests。



The　doctrine　of　the　instability　of　pure　constitutions　forms　an

important　era　in　the　philosophy　of　history。　　Its　special

applicability　to　the　politics　of　our　own　day　has　been　illustrated

in　the　rise　of　the　great　Napoleon；　when　the　French　state　had　lost

those　divisions　of　caste　and　prejudice；　of　landed　aristocracy　and

moneyed　interest；　institutions　in　which　the　vulgar　see　only

barriers　to　Liberty　but　which　are　indeed　the　only　possible　defences

against　the　coming　of　that　periodic　Sirius　of　politics；　the　＇Greek

text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇。



There　is　a　principle　which　Tocqueville　never　wearies　of　explaining；

and　which　has　been　subsumed　by　Mr。　Herbert　Spencer　under　that

general　law　common　to　all　organic　bodies　which　we　call　the

Instability　of　the　Homogeneous。　　The　various　manifestations　of　this

law；　as　shown　in　the　normal；　regular　revolutions　and　evolutions　of

the　different　forms　of　government；　（8）　are　expounded　with　great

clearness　by　Polybius；　who　claimed　for　his　theory；　in　the

Thucydidean　spirit；　that　it　is　a　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be

reproduced＇；　not　a　mere　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；

and　that　a　knowledge　of　it　will　enable　the　impartial　observer　（9）

to　discover　at　any　time　what　period　of　its　constitutional　evolution

any　particular　state　has　already　reached　and　into　what　form　it　will

be　next　differentiated；　though　possibly　the　exact　time　of　the

changes　may　be　more　or　less　uncertain。　（10）



Now　in　this　necessarily　incomplete　account　of　the　laws　of　political

revolutions　as　expounded　by　Polybius　enough　perhaps　has　been　said

to　show　what　is　his　true　position　in　the　rational　development　of

the　'Idea'　which　I　have　called　the　Philosophy　of　History；　because

it　is　the　unifying　of　history。　　Seen　darkly　as　it　is　through　the

glass　of　religion　in　the　pages　of　Herodotus；　more　metaphysical　than

scientific　with　Thucydides；　Plato　strove　to　seize　it　by　the　eagle…

flight　of　speculation；　to　reach　it　with　the　eager　grasp　of　a　soul

impatient　of　those　slower　and　surer　inductive　methods　which

Aristotle；　in　his　trenchant　criticism　of　his　greater　master；　showed

were　more　brilliant　than　any　vague　theory；　if　the　test　of

brilliancy　is　truth。



What　then　is　the　position　of　Polybius？　　Does　any　new　method　remain

for　him？　　Polybius　was　one　of　those　many　men　who　are　born　too　late

to　be　original。　　To　Thucydides　belongs　the　honour　of　being　the

first　in　the　history　of　Greek　thought　to　discern　the　supreme　calm

of　law　and　order　underlying　the　fitful　storms　of　life；　and　Plato

and　Aristotle　each　represents　a　great　new　principle。　　To　Polybius

belongs　the　office　…　how　noble　an　office　he　made　it　his　writings

show　…　of　making　more　explicit　the　ideas　which　were　implicit　in　his

predecessors；　of　showing　that　they　were　of　wider　applicability　and

perhaps　of　deeper　meaning　than　they　had　seemed　before；　of　examining

with　more　minuteness　the　laws　which　they　had　discovered；　and

finally　of　pointing　out　more　clearly　than　any　one　had　done　the

range　of　science　and　the　means　it　offered　for　analysing　the　present

and　predicting　what　was　to　come。　　His　office　thus　was　to　gather　up

what　they　had　left；　to　give　their　principles　new　life　by　a　wider

application。



Polybius　ends　this　great　diapason　of　Greek　thought。　　When　the

Philosophy　of　history　appears　next；　as　in　Plutarch's　tract　on　'Why

God's　anger　is　delayed；'　the　pendulum　of　thought　had　swung　back　to

where　it　began。　　His　theory　was　introduced　to　the　Romans　under　the

cultured　style　of　Cicero；　and　was　welcomed　by　them　as　the

philosophical　panegyric　of　their　state。　　The　last　notice　of　it　in

Latin　literature　is　in　the　pages　of　Tacitus；　who　alludes　to　the

stable　polity　formed　out　of　these　elements　as　a　constitution　easier

to　commend　than　to　produce　and　in　no　case　lasting。　　Yet　Polybius

had　seen　the　future　with　no　uncertain　eye；　and　had　prophesied　the

rise　of　the　Empire　from　the　unbalanced　power　of　the　ochlocracy

fifty　years　and　more　before　there　was　joy　in　the　Julian　household

over　the　birth　of　that　boy　who；　born　to　power　as　the　champion　of

the　people；　died　wearing　the　purple　of　a　king。



No　attitude　of　historical　criticism　is　more　important　than　the

means　by　which　the　ancients　attained　to　the　philosophy　of　history。

The　principle　of　heredity　can　be　exemplified　in　literature　as　well

as　in　organic　life：　　Aristotle；　Plato　and　Polybius　are　the　lineal

ancestors　of　Fichte　and　Hegel；　of　Vico　and　Cousin；　of　Montesquieu

and　Tocqueville。



As　my　aim　is　not　to　give　an　account　of　historians　but　to　point　out

those　great　thinkers　whose　methods　have　furthered　the　advance　of

this　spirit　of　historical　criticism；　I　shall　pass　over　those

annalists　and　chroniclers　who　intervened　between　Thucydides　and

Polybius。　　Yet　perhaps　it　may　serve　to　throw　new　light　on　the　real

nature　of　this　spirit　and　its　intimate　connection　with　all　other

forms　of　advanced　thought　if　I　give　some　estimate　of　the　character

and　rise　of　those　many　influences　prejudicial　to　the　scientific

study　of　history　which　cause　such　a　wide　gap　between　these　two

historians。



Foremost　among　these　is　the　growing　influence　of　rhetoric　and　the

Isocratean　school；　which　seems　to　have　regarded　history　as　an　arena

for　the　display　either　of　pathos　or　paradoxes；　not　a　scientific

investigation　into　laws。



The　new　age　is　the　age　of　style。　　The　same　spirit　of　exclusive

attention　to　form　which　made　Euripides　often；　like　Swinburne；

prefer　music　to　meaning　and　melody　to　morality；　which　gave　to　the

later　Greek　statues　that　refined　effeminacy；　that　overstrained

gracefulness　of　attitude；　was　felt　in　the　sphere　of　history。　　The

rules　laid　down　for　historical　composition　are　those　relating　to

the　aesthetic　value　of　digressions；　the　legality　of　employing　more

than　one　metaphor　in　the　same　sentence；　and　the　like；　and

historians　are　ranked　not　by　their　power　of　estimating　evidence　but

by　the　goodness　of　the　Greek　they　write。



I　must　note　also　the　important　influence　on　literature　exercised　by

Alexander　the　Great；　for　while　his　travels　encouraged　the　more

accurate　research　of　geography；　the　very　splendour　of　his

achievements　seems　to　have　brought　history　again　into　the　sphere　of

romance。　　The　appearance　of　all　great　men　in　the　world　is　followed

invariably　by　the　rise　of　that　mythopoeic　spirit　and　that　tendency

to　look　for　the　marvellous；　which　is　so　fatal　to　true　historical

criticism。　　An　Alexander；　a　Napoleon；　a　Francis　of　Assisi　and　a

Mahomet　are　thought　to　be　outside　the　limiting　conditions　of

rational　law；　just　as　comets　were　supposed　to　be　not　very　long　ago。

While　the　founding　of　that　city　of　Alexandria；　in　which　Western　and

Eastern　thought　met　with　such　strange　result　to　both；　diverted　the

critical　tendencies　of　the　Greek　spirit　into　questions　of　grammar；

philology　and　the　like；　the　narrow；　artificial　atmosphere　of　that

University　town　（as　we　may　call　it）　was　fatal　to　the　development　of

that　independent　and　speculative　spirit　of　research　which　strikes

out　new　methods　of　inquiry；　of　which　historical　criticism　is　one。



The　Alexandrines　combined　a　great　love　of　learning　with　an

ignorance　of　the　true　principles　of　research；　an　enthusiastic

spirit　for　accumulating　materials　with　a　wonderful　incapacity　to

use　them。　　Not　among　the　hot　sands　of　Egypt；　or　the　Sophists　of

Athens；　but　from　the　very　heart　of　Greece　rises　the　man　of　genius

on　whose　influence　in　the　evolution　of　the　philosophy　of　history　I

have　a　short　time　ago　dwelt。　　Born　in　the　serene　and　pure　air　of

the　clear　uplands　of　Arcadia；　Polybius　may　be　said　to　reproduce　in

his　work　the　character　of　the　place　which　gave　him　birth。　　For；　of

all　the　historians　…　I　do　not　say　of　antiquity　but　of　all　time　…

none　is　more　rationalistic　than　he；　none　more　free　from　any　belief

in　the　'visions　and　omens；　the　monstrous　legends；　the　grovelling

superstitions　and　unmanly　craving　for　the　supernatural'　（＇Greek

text　that　cannot　be　reproduced＇（11））　which　he　himself　is　compelled

to　notice　as　the　characteristics　of　some　of　the　historians　who

preceded　him。　　Fortunate　in　the　land　which　bore　him；　he　was　no　less

blessed　in　the　wondrous　time　of　his　birth。　　For；　representing　in

himself　the　spiritual　supremacy　of　the　Greek　intellect　and　allied

in　bonds　of　chivalrous　friendship　to　the　world…conqueror　of　his

day；　he　seems　led　as　it　were　by　the　hand　of　Fate　'to　comprehend；'

as　has　been　said；　'more　clearly　than　the　Romans　themselves　the

historical　position　of　Rome；'　and　to　discern　with　greater　insight

than　all　other　men　could　those　two　great　resultants　of　ancient

civilisation；　the　material　empire　of　the　city　of　the　seven　hills；

and　the　intellectual　sovereignty　of　Hellas。



Before　his　own　day；　he　says；　（12）　the　events　of　the　world　were

unconnected　and　separate　and　the　histories　confined　to　particular

countries。　　Now；　for　the　first　time　the　universal　empire　of　the

Romans　rendered　a　universal　history　possible。　（13）　　This；　then；　is

the　august　motive　of　his　work：　　to　trace　the　gradual　rise　of　this

Italian　city　from　the　day　when　the　first　legion　crossed　the　narrow

strait　of　Messina　and　landed　on　the　fertile　fields　of　Sicily　to　the

time　when　Corinth　in　the　East　and　Carthage　in　the　West　fell　before

the　resistless　wave　of　empire　and　the　eagles　of　Rome　passed　on　the

wings　of　universal　victory　from　Calpe　and　the　Pillars　of　Hercules

to　Syria　and　the　Nile。　　At　the　same　time　he　recognised　that　the

scheme　of　Rome's　empire　was　worked　out　under　the　aegis　of　God's

will。　（14）　　For；　as　one　of　the　Middle　Age　scribes　most　truly　says；

the　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇　of　Polybius　is　that

power　which　we　Christians　call　God；　the　second　aim；　as　one　may　call

it；　of　his　history　is　to　point　out　the　rational　and　human　and

natural　causes　which　brought　this　result；　distinguishing；　as　we

should　say；　between　God's　mediate　and　immediate　government　of　the

world。



With　any　direct　intervention　of　God　in　the　normal　development　of

Man；　he　will　have　nothing　to　do：　　still　less　with　any　idea　of

chance　as　a　factor　in　the　phenomena　of　life。　　Chance　and　miracles；

he　says；　are　mere　expressions　for　our　ignorance　of　rational　causes。

The　spirit　of　rationalism　which　we　recognised　in　Herodotus　as　a

vague　uncertain　attitude　and　which　appears　in　Thucydides　as　a

consistent　attitude　of　mind　never　argued　about　or　even　explained；

is　by　Polybius　analysed　and　formulated　as　the　great　instrument　of

historical　research。



Herodotus；　while　believing　on　principle　in　the　supernatural；　yet

was　sceptical　at　times。　　Thucydides　simply　ignored　the

supernatural。　　He　did　not　discuss　it；　but　he　annihilated　it　by

explaining　history　without　it。　　Polybius　enters　at　length　into　the

whole　question　and　explains　its　origin　and　the　method　of