wealbk01-第23章

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arise　from　the　different　degrees　of　trust　reposed　in　the　traders。

　　　　　Fifthly；　the　wages　of　labour　in　different。　employments　vary

according　to　the　probability　or　improbability　of　success　in　them。

　　　　　The　probability　that　any　particular　person　shall　ever　be

qualified　for　the　employment　to　which　he　is　educated　is　very

different　in　different　occupations。　In　the　greater　part　of

mechanic　trades；　success　is　almost　certain；　but　very　uncertain　in

the　liberal　professions。　Put　your　son　apprentice　to　a　shoemaker；

there　is　little　doubt　of　his　learning　to　make　a　pair　of　shoes；

but　send　him　to　study　the　law；　it　is　at　least　twenty　to　one　if

ever　he　makes　such　proficiency　as　will　enable　him　to　live　by　the

business。　In　a　perfectly　fair　lottery；　those　who　draw　the　prizes

ought　to　gain　all　that　is　lost　by　those　who　draw　the　blanks。　In　a

profession　where　twenty　fail　for　one　that　succeeds；　that　one

ought　to　gain　all　that　should　have　been　gained　by　the

unsuccessful　twenty。　The　counsellor…at…law　who；　perhaps；　at　near

forty　years　of　age；　begins　to　make　something　by　his　profession；

ought　to　receive　the　retribution；　not　only　of　his　own　so　tedious

and　expensive　education；　but　that　of　more　than　twenty　others　who

are　never　likely　to　make　anything　by　it。　How　extravagant　soever

the　fees　of　counsellors…at…law　may　sometimes　appear；　their　real

retribution　is　never　equal　to　this。　Compute　in　any　particular

place　what　is　likely　to　be　annually　gained；　and　what　is　likely　to

be　annually　spent；　by　all　the　different　workmen　in　any　common

trade；　such　as　that　of　shoemakers　or　weavers；　and　you　will　find

that　the　former　sum　will　generally　exceed　the　latter。　But　make

the　same　computation　with　regard　to　all　the　counsellors　and

students　of　law；　in　all　the　different　inns　of　court；　and　you　will

find　that　their　annual　gains　bear　but　a　very　small　proportion　to

their　annual　expense；　even　though　you　rate　the　former　as　high；

and　the　latter　as　low；　as　can　well　be　done。　The　lottery　of　the

law；　therefore；　is　very　far　from　being　a　perfectly　fair　lottery；

and　that；　as　well　as　many　other　liberal　and　honourable

professions；　are；　in　point　of　pecuniary　gain；　evidently

under…recompensed。

　　　　　Those　professions　keep　their　level；　however；　with　other

occupations；　and；　notwithstanding　these　discouragements；　all　the

most　generous　and　liberal　spirits　are　eager　to　crowd　into　them。

Two　different　causes　contribute　to　recommend　them。　First；　the

desire　of　the　reputation　which　attends　upon　superior　excellence

in　any　of　them；　and；　secondly；　the　natural　confidence　which　every

man　has　more　or　less；　not　only　in　his　own　abilities；　but　in　his

own　good　fortune。

　　　　　To　excel　in　any　profession；　in　which　but　few　arrive　at

mediocrity；　is　the　most　decisive　mark　of　what　is　called　genius　or

superior　talents。　The　public　admiration　which　attends　upon　such

distinguished　abilities　makes　always　a　part　of　their　reward；　a

greater　or　smaller　in　proportion　as　it　is　higher　or　lower　in

degree。　It　makes　a　considerable　part　of　that　reward　in　the

profession　of　physic；　a　still　greater　perhaps　in　that　of　law；　in

poetry　and　philosophy　it　makes　almost　the　whole。

　　　　　There　are　some　very　agreeable　and　beautiful　talents　of　which

the　possession　commands　a　certain　sort　of　admiration；　but　of

which　the　exercise　for　the　sake　of　gain　is　considered；　whether

from　reason　or　prejudice；　as　a　sort　of　public　prostitution。　The

pecuniary　recompense；　therefore；　of　those　who　exercise　them　in

this　manner　must　be　sufficient；　not　only　to　pay　for　the　time；

labour；　and　expense　of　acquiring　the　talents；　but　for　the

discredit　which　attends　the　employment　of　them　as　the　means　of

subsistence。　The　exorbitant　rewards　of　players；　opera…singers；

opera…dancers；　etc。；　are　founded　upon　those　two　principles；　the

rarity　and　beauty　of　the　talents；　and　the　discredit　of　employing

them　in　this　manner。　It　seems　absurd　at　first　sight　that　we

should　despise　their　persons　and　yet　reward　their　talents　with

the　most　profuse　liberality。　While　we　do　the　one；　however；　we

must　of　necessity　do　the　other。　Should　the　public　opinion　or

prejudice　ever　alter　with　regard　to　such　occupations；　their

pecuniary　recompense　would　quickly　diminish。　More　people　would

apply　to　them；　and　the　competition　would　quickly　reduce　the　price

of　their　labour。　Such　talents；　though　far　from　being　common；　are

by　no　means　so　rare　as　is　imagined。　Many　people　possess　them　in

great　perfection；　who　disdain　to　make　this　use　of　them；　and　many

more　are　capable　of　acquiring　them；　if　anything　could　be　made

honourably　by　them。

　　　　　The　overweening　conceit　which　the　greater　part　of　men　have

of　their　own　abilities　is　an　ancient　evil　remarked　by　the

philosophers　and　moralists　of　all　ages。　Their　absurd　presumption

in　their　own　good　fortune　has　been　less　taken　notice　of。　It　is；

however；　if　possible；　still　more　universal。　There　is　no　man

living　who；　when　in　tolerable　health　and　spirits；　has　not　some

share　of　it。　The　chance　of　gain　is　by　every　man　more　or　less

overvalued；　and　the　chance　of　loss　is　by　most　men　undervalued；

and　by　scarce　any　man；　who　is　in　tolerable　health　and　spirits；

valued　more　than　it　is　worth。

　　　　　That　the　chance　of　gain　is　naturally　overvalued；　we　may

learn　from　the　universal　success　of　lotteries。　The　world　neither

ever　saw；　nor　ever　will　see；　a　perfectly　fair　lottery；　or　one　in

which　the　whole　gain　compensated　the　whole　loss；　because　the

undertaker　could　make　nothing　by　it。　In　the　state　lotteries　the

tickets　are　really　not　worth　the　price　which　is　paid　by　the

original　subscribers；　and　yet　commonly　sell　in　the　market　for

twenty；　thirty；　and　sometimes　forty　per　cent　advance。　The　vain

hope　of　gaining　some　of　the　great　prizes　is　the　sole　cause　of

this　demand。　The　soberest　people　scarce　look　upon　it　as　a　folly

to　pay　a　small　sum　for　the　chance　of　gaining　ten　or　twenty

thousand　pounds；　though　they　know　that　even　that　small　sum　is

perhaps　twenty　or　thirty　per　cent　more　than　the　chance　is　worth。

In　a　lottery　in　which　no　prize　exceeded　twenty　pounds；　though　in

other　respects　it　approached　much　nearer　to　a　perfectly　fair　one

than　the　common　state　lotteries；　there　would　not　be　the　same

demand　for　tickets。　In　order　to　have　a　better　chance　for　some　of

the　great　prizes；　some　people　purchase　several　tickets；　and

others；　small　share　in　a　still　greater　number。　There　is　not；

however；　a　more　certain　proposition　in　mathematics　than　that　the

more　tickets　you　adventure　upon；　the　more　likely　you　are　to　be　a

loser。　Adventure　upon　all　the　tickets　in　the　lottery；　and　you

lose　for　certain；　and　the　greater　the　number　of　your　tickets　the

nearer　you　approach　to　this　certainty。

　　　　　That　the　chance　of　loss　is　frequently　undervalued；　and

scarce　ever　valued　more　than　it　is　worth；　we　may　learn　from　a

very　moderate　profit　of　insurers。　In　order　to　make　insurance；

either　from　fire　or　sea…risk；　a　trade　at　all；　the　common　premium

must　be　sufficient　to　compensate　the　common　losses；　to　pay　the

expense　of　management；　and　to　afford　such　a　profit　as　might　have

been　drawn　from　an　equal　capital　employed　in　any　common　trade。

The　person　who　pays　no　more　than　this　evidently　pays　no　more　than

the　real　value　of　the　risk；　or　the　lowest　price　at　which　he　can

reasonably　expect　to　insure　it。　But　though　many　people　have　made

a　little　money　by　insurance；　very　few　have　made　a　great　fortune；

and　from　this　consideration　alone；　it　seems　evident　enough　that

the　ordinary　balance　of　profit　and　loss　is　not　more　advantageous

in　this　than　in　other　common　trades　by　which　so　many　people　make

fortunes。　Moderate；　however；　as　the　premium　of　insurance　commonly

is；　many　people　despise　the　risk　too　much　to　care　to　pay　it。

Taking　the　whole　kingdom　at　an　average；　nineteen　houses　in

twenty；　or　rather　perhaps　ninety…nine　in　a　hundred；　are　not

insured　from　fire。　Sea　risk　is　more　alarming　to　the　greater　part

of　people；　and　the　proportion　of　ships　insured　to　those　not

insured　is　much　greater。　Many　fail；　however；　at　all　seasons；　and

even　in　time　of　war；　without　any　insurance。　This　may　sometimes

perhaps　be　done　without　any　imprudence。　When　a　great　company；　or

even　a　great　merchant；　has　twenty　or　thirty　ships　at　sea；　they

may；　as　it　were；　insure　one　another。　The　premium　saved　upon　them

all　may　more　than　compensate　such　losses　as　they　are　likely　to

meet　with　in　the　common　course　of　chances。　The　neglect　of

insurance　upon　shipping；　however；　in　the　same　manner　as　upon

houses；　is；　in　most　cases；　the　effect　of　no　such　nice

calculation；　but　of　mere　thoughtless　rashness　and　presumptuous

contempt　of　the　risk。

　　　　　The　contempt　of　risk　and　the　presumptuous　hope　of　success

are　in　no　period　of　life　more　active　than　at　the　age　at　which

young　people　choose　their　professions。　How　little　the　fear　of

misfortune　is　then　capable　of　balancing　the　hope　of　good　luck

appears　still　more　evidently　in　the　readiness　of　the　common

People　to　enlist　as　soldiers；　or　to　go　to　sea；　than　in　the

eagerness　of　those　of　better　fashion　to　enter　into　what　are

called　the　liberal　professions。

　　　　　What　a　common　soldier　may　lose　is　obvious　enough。　Without

regarding　the　danger；　however；　young　volunteers　never　enlist　so

readily　as　at　the　beginning　of　a　new　war；　and　though　they　have

scarce　any　chance　of　preferment；　they　figure　to　themselves；　in

their　youthful　fancies；　a　thousand　occasions　of　acquiring　honour

and　distinction　which　never　occur。　These　romantic　hopes　make　the

whole　price　of　their　blood。　Their　pay　is　less　than　that　of　common

labourers；　and　in　actual　service　their　fatigues　are　much　greater。

　　　　　The　lottery　of　the　sea　is　not　altogether　so　disadvantageous

as　that　of　the　army。　The　son　of　a　creditable　labourer　or

artificer　may　frequently　go　to　sea　with　his　father's　consent；　but

if　he　enlists　as　a　soldier；　it　is　always　without　it。　Other　people

see　some　chance　of　his　making　something　by　the　one　trade：　nobody

but　himself　sees　any　of　his　making　anything　by　the　other。　The

great　admiral　is　less　the　object　of　public　admiration　than　the

great　general；　and　the　highest　success　in　the　sea　service

promises　a　less　brilliant　fortune　and　reputation　than　equal

success　in　the　land。　The　same　difference　runs　through　all　the

inferior　degrees　of　preferment　in　both。　By　the　rules　of

precedency　a　captain　in　the　navy　ranks　with　a　colonel　in　the

army；　but　he　does　not　rank　with　him　in　the　common　estimation。　As

the　great　prizes　in　the　lottery　are　less；　the　smaller　ones　must

be　more　numerous。　Common　sailors；　therefore；　more　frequently　get

some　fortune　and　preferment　than　common　soldiers；　and　the　hope　of

those　prizes　is　what　principally　recommends　the　trade。　Though

their　skill　and　dexterity　are　much　superior　to　that　of　almost　any

artificers；　and　though　their　whole　life　is　one　continual　scene　of

hardship　and　danger；　yet　for　all　this　dexterity　and　skill；　for

all　those　hardships　and　dangers；　while　they　remain　in　the

condition　of　common　sailors；　they　receive