list4-第4章

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emigration；　the　existing　and　still　increasing　disproportion　between



the　value　of　the　exports　and　that　of　imports　cannot　possibly　in　the



long　run　be　equalised　by　those　means。　Alarming　commercial　crises；



which　continually　increase　in　their　magnitude；　must　occur；　and　the



Americans　must　at　length　be　led　to　recognise　the　sources　of　the



evil　and　to　determine　to　put　a　stop　to　them。



　　　　It　thus　lies　in　the　very　nature　of　things；　that　the　number　of



the　advocates　of　the　protective　system　must　again　increase；　and



those　of　free　trade　again　diminish。　Hitherto；　the　prices　of



agricultural　produce　have　been　maintained　at　an　unusually　high



level；　owing　to　the　previous　prosperity　of　the　manufactories；



through　the　carrying　out　of　great　public　undertakings；　through　the



demand　for　necessaries　of　life　arising　from　the　great　increase　of



the　production　of　cotton；　also　partially　through　bad　harvests。　One



may；　however；　foresee　with　certainty；　that　these　prices　in　the



course　of　the　next　few　years　will　fall　as　much　below　the　average　as



they　have　hitherto　ranged　above　it。　The　greater　part　of　the



increase　of　American　capital　has　since　the　passing　of　the



Compromise　Bill　been　devoted　to　agriculture；　and　is　only　now



beginning　to　become　productive。　While　thus　agricultural　production



has　unusually　increased；　on　the　other　hand　the　demand　for　it　must



unusually　diminish。　Firstly；　because　public　works　are　no　more　being



undertaken　to　the　same　extent；　secondly；　because　the　manufacturing



population　in　consequence　of　foreign　competition　can　no　more



increase　to　an　important　extent；　and　thirdly；　because　the



production　of　cotton　so　greatly　exceeds　the　consumption　that　the



cotton　planters　will　be　compelled；　owing　to　the　low　prices　of



cotton；　to　produce　for　themselves　those　necessaries　of　life　which



they　have　hitherto　procured　from　the　Middle　and　Western　States。　If



in　addition　rich　harvests　occur；　then　the　Middle　and　Western　States



will　again　suffer　from　an　excess　of　produce；　as　they　did　before　the



tariff　of　1828。　But　the　same　causes　must　again　produce　the　same



results；　viz。　the　agriculturists　of　the　Middle　and　Western　States



must　again　arrive　at　the　conviction；　that　the　demand　for



agricultural　produce　can　only　be　increased　by　the　increase　of　the



manufacturing　population　of　the　country；　and　that　that　increase　can



only　be　brought　about　by　an　extension　of　the　protective　system。



While　in　this　manner　the　partisans　of　protection　will　daily



increase　in　number　and　influence；　the　opposite　party　will　diminish



in　like　proportion　until　the　cotton　planters　under　such　altered



circumstances　must　necessarily　come　to　the　conviction　that　the



increase　of　the　manufacturing　population　of　the　country　and　the



increase　of　the　demand　for　agricultural　produce　and　raw　materials



both　consist　with　their　own　interests　if　rightly　understood。



　　　　Because；　as　we　have　shown；　the　cotton　planters　and　the



Democrats　in　North　America　were　striving　most　earnestly　of　their



own　accord　to　play　into　the　hands　of　the　commercial　interests　of



England；　no　opportunity　was　offered　at　the　moment　on　this　side　for



Mr　Poulett　Thompson　to　display　his　skill　in　commercial　diplomacy。



　　　　Matters　were　quite　in　another　position　in　France。　There　people



still　steadily　clung　to　the　prohibitive　system。　There　were　indeed



many　State　officials　who　were　disciples　of　theory；　and　also



deputies　who　were　in　favour　of　an　extension　of　commercial　relations



between　England　and　France；　and　the　existing　alliance　with　England



had　also　rendered　this　view　to　a　certain　extent　popular。　But　how　to



attain　that　object；　opinions　were　less　agreed；　and　in　no　respect



were　they　quite　clear。　It　seemed　evident　and　also　indisputable　that



the　high　duties　on　the　foreign　necessaries　of　life　and　raw



materials；　and　the　exclusion　of　English　coal　and　pig…iron；　operated



very　disadvantageously　to　French　industry；　and　that　an　increase　in



the　exports　of　wines；　brandy；　and　silk　fabrics　would　be　extremely



advantageous　to　France。



　　　　In　general；　people　confined　themselves　to　universal　declamation



against　the　disadvantages　of　the　prohibitive　system。　But　to　attack



this　in　special　cases　did　not　appear　at　the　time　to　be　at　all



advisable。　For　the　Government　of　July　had　their　strongest



supporters　among　the　rich　bourgeoisie；　who　for　the　most　part　were



interested　in　the　great　manufacturing　undertakings。



　　　　Under　these　circumstances　Mr　Poulett　Thompson　formed　a　plan　of



operations　which　does　all　honour　to　his　breadth　of　thought　and



diplomatic　adroitness。　He　sent　to　France　a　man　thoroughly　versed　in



commerce　and　industry　and　in　the　commercial　policy　of　France；　well



known　for　his　'liberal　sentiments'　a　learned　man　and　a　very



accomplished　writer；　Dr　Bowring；　who　travelled　through　the　whole　of



France；　and　subsequently　through　Switzerland　also；　to　gather　on　the



spot　materials　for　arguments　against　the　prohibitive　system　and　in



favour　of　free　trade。　Dr　Bowring　accomplished　this　task　with　his



accustomed　ability　and　adroitness。　Especially　he　clearly　indicated



the　before…mentioned　advantages　of　a　freer　commercial　intercourse



between　the　two　countries　in　respect　of　coal；　pig…iron；　wines；　and



brandies。　In　the　report　which　he　published；　he　chiefly　confined　his



arguments　to　these　articles；　in　reference　to　the　other　branches　of



industry　he　only　gave　statistics；　without　committing　himself　to



proofs　or　propositions　how　these　could　be　promoted　by　means　of　free



trade　with　England。



　　　　Dr　Bowring　acted　in　precise　accordance　with　the　instructions



given　to　him　by　Mr　Poulett　Thompson；　which　were　framed　with



uncommon　art　and　subtlety；　and　which　appear　at　the　head　of　his



report。　In　these　Mr　Thompson　makes　use　of　the　most　liberal



expressions。　He　expresses　himself；　with　much　consideration　for　the



French　manufacturing　interests；　on　the　improbability　that　any



important　result　was　to　be　expected　from　the　contemplated



negotiations　with　France。　This　instruction　was　perfectly　adapted



for　calming　the　apprehensions　respecting　the　views　of　England



entertained　by　the　French　woollen　and　cotton　manufacturing



interests　which　had　become　so　powerful。　According　to　Mr　Thompson；



it　would　be　folly　to　ask　for　important　concessions　respecting



these。



　　　　On　the　other　hand；　he　gives　a　hint　how　the　object　might　more



easily　be　attained　in　respect　of　'less　important　articles。'　These



less　important　articles　are　certainly　not　enumerated　in　the



instruction；　but　the　subsequent　experience　of　France　has　completely



brought　to　light　what　Mr　Thompson　meant　by　it；　for　at　the　time　of



the　writing　of　this　instruction　the　exports　of　linen　yarn　and　linen



fabrics　of　England　to　France　were　included　in　the　term　'less



important。'



　　　　The　French　Government；　moved　by　the　representations　and



explanations　of　the　English　Government　and　its　agents；　and　with　the



intention　of　making　to　England　a　comparatively　unimportant



concession；　which　would　ultimately　prove　advantageous　to　France



herself；　lowered　the　duty　on　linen　yarn　and　linen　fabrics　to　such



an　extent　that　they　no　longer　gave　any　protection　to　French



industry　in　face　of　the　great　improvements　which　the　English　had



made　in　these　branches　of　manufacture；　so　that　even　in　the　next　few



years　the　export　of　these　articles　from　England　to　France　increased



enormously　（1838；　32；000；000　francs）；　and　that　France　stood　in



danger；　owing　to　the　start　which　England　had　thus　obtained；　of



losing　its　entire　linen　industry；　amounting　to　many　hundred



millions　in　value；　which　was　of　the　greatest　importance　for　her



agriculture　and　for　the　welfare　of　her　entire　rural　population；



unless　means　could　be　found　to　put　a　check　on　the　English



competition　by　increasing　the　duties。



　　　　That　France　was　duped　by　Mr　Poulett　Thompson　was　clear　enough。



He　had　already　clearly　seen　in　the　year　1834　what　an　impulse　the



linen　manufacture　of　England　would　receive　in　the　next　few　years　in



consequence　of　the　new　inventions　which　had　been　made　there；　and　in



this　negotiation　he　had　calculated　on　the　ignorance　of　the　French



Government　respecting　these　inventions　and　their　necessary



consequences。　The　advocates　of　this　lowering　of　duties　now　indeed



endeavoured　to　make　the　world　believe　that　by　it　they　only　desired



to　make　a　concession　to　the　belgian　linen　manufactures。　But　did



that　make　amends　for　their　lack　of　acquaintance　with　the　advances



made　by　the　English；　and　their　lack　of　foresight　as　to　the



necessary　consequences？



　　　　Be　that　as　it　may；　this　much　is　clearly　demonstrated；　that　it



was　necessary　for　France　to　protect　herself　still　more；　under



penalty　of　losing　the　greater　part　of　her　linen　manufacturing　for



the　benefit　of　England；　and　that　the　first　and　most　recent



experiment　of　the　increase　of　freedom　of　trade　between　England　and



France　remains　as　an　indelible　memorial　of　English　craft　and　of



French　inexperience；　as　a　new　Methuen　Treaty；　as　a　second　Eden



Treaty。　But　what　did　Mr　Poulett　Thompson　do　when　he　perceived　the



complaints　of　the　French　linen　manufacturers　and　the　inclination　of



the　French　Government　to　repair　the　mistake　which　had　been　made？　He



did　what　Mr　Huskisson　had　done　before　him；　he　indulged　in　threats；



he　threatened　to　exclude　French　wines　and　silk　fabrics。　This　is



English　cosmopolitanism。　France　must　give　up　a　manufacturing



industry　of　a　thousand　years'　standing；　bound　up　in　the　closest



manner　with　the　entire　economy　of　her　lower　classes　and　especially



with　her　agriculture；　the　products　of　which　must　be　reckoned　as



chief　necessaries　of　life　for　all　classes；　and　of　the　entire　amount



of　between　three　and　four　hundred　millions；　in　order　thereby　to



purchase　the　privilege　of　exporting　to　England　some　few　millions



more　in　value　of　wines　and　silk　manufactures。　Quite　apart　from　this



disproportion　in　value；　it　must　be　considered　in　what　a　position



France　would　be　placed　if　the　commercial　relations　between　both



nations　became　interrupted　in　consequence　of　a　war；　in　case　viz。



that　France　could　no　more　export　to　England　her　surplus　products　of



silk　manufactures　and　wines；　but　at　the　same　time　suffered　from　the



want　of　such　an　important　necessary　of　life　as　linen。



　　　　If　anyone　reflects　on　this　he　will　see　that　the　linen　question



is　not　simply　a　question　of　economical　well…being；　but；　as



everything　is　which　concerns　the　national　manufacturing　power