the crisis in russia(俄国危机)-第25章
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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA
Europe； is an example of this sort of dementia； but I cannot help believing
that sanity will reassert itself in time。 At the present moment； to use a
modification of Gusev's metaphor； Europe may be compared to a burning
house and the Governments of Europe to fire brigades； each one engaged
in trying to salve a wing or a room of the building。 It seems a pity that
these fire brigades should be fighting each other； and forgetting the fire in
their resentment of the fact that some of them wear red uniforms and some
wear blue。 Any single room to which the fire gains complete control
increases the danger of the whole building； and I hope that before the roof
falls in the firemen will come to their senses。
But turning from grim recognition of the danger； and from
speculations as to the chance of the Russian Government collapsing； and
as to the changes in it that time may bring； let us consider what is likely to
happen supposing it does not collapse。 I have already said that I think
collapse unlikely。 Do the Russians show any signs of being able to carry
out their programme； or has the fire gone so far during the quarrelling of
the firemen as to make that task impossible？
I think that there is still a hope。 There is as yet no sign of a general
improvement in Russia； nor is such an improvement possible until the
Russians have at least carried out the first stage of their programme。 It
would even not be surprising if things in general were to continue to go to
the bad during the carrying out of that first stage。 Shortages of food； of
men； of tools； of materials； are so acute that they have had to choose those
factories which are absolutely indispensable for the carrying out of this
stage； and make of them 〃shock〃 factories； like the 〃shock〃 troops of the
war； giving them equipment over and above their rightful share of the
impoverished stock； feeding their workmen even at the cost of letting
others go hungry。 That means that other factories suffer。 No matter； say
the Russians； if only that first stage makes progress。 Consequently； the
only test that can be fairly applied is that of transport。 Are they or are
they not gaining on ruin in the matter of wagons and engines！ Here are the
figures of wagon repairs in the seven chief repairing shops up to the month
of June：
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December 1919。。。。。。。。。。。。475 wagons were repaired。 January
1920。。。。。。。。。。。。。656 February。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。697 March。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1104
April。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1141 May。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1154 June。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1161
After elaborate investigation last year； Trotsky； as temporary
Commissar of Transport； put out an order explaining that the railways； to
keep up their present condition； must repair roughly 800 engines every
month。 During the first six months of 1920 they fulfilled this task in the
following percentages：
January。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。32 per cent February。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。50
March。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。66
April。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。78 May。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。98 June。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。104
I think that is a proof that； supposing normal relations existed
between Russia and ourselves； the Russian would be able to tackle the first
stage of the problem that lies before them； and would lie before them
whatever their Government might be。 Unfortunately there is no proof
that this steady improvement can be continued； except under conditions of
trade with Western Europe。 There are Russians who think they can pull
through without us； and； remembering the miracles of which man is
capable when his back is to the wall； it would be rash to say that this is
impossible。 But other Russians point out gloomily that they have been
using certain parts taken from dead engines （engines past repair） in order
to mend sick engines。 They are now coming to the mending； not of sick
engines merely； but of engines on which post…mortems have already been
held。 They are actually mending engines； parts of which have already
been taken out and used for the mending of other engines。 There are
consequently abnormal demands for such things as shafts and piston rings。
They are particularly short of Babbitt metal and boiler tubes。 In normal
times the average number of new tubes wanted for each engine put
through the repair shops was 25 （10 to 15 for engines used in the more
northerly districts； and 30 to 40 for engines in the south where the water is
not so good）。 This number must now be taken as much higher； because
during recent years tubes have not been regularly renewed。 Further； the
railways have been widely making use of tubes taken from dead engines；
that is to say； tubes already worn。 Putting things at their very best；
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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA
assuming that the average demand for tubes per engine will be that of
normal times； then； if 1；000 engines are to be repaired monthly； 150；000
tubes will be wanted every six months。 Now on the 15th of June the total
stock of tubes ready for use was 58；000； and the railways could not expect
to get more than another 13；000 in the near future。 Unless the factories
are able to do better （and their improvement depends on improvement in
transport）； railway repairs must again deteriorate； since the main source of
materials for it in Russia； namely the dead
engines； will presently be exhausted。
On this there is only one thing to be said。 If； whether because we do
not trade with them； or from some other cause； the Russians are unable to
proceed even in this first stage of their programme； it means an indefinite
postponement of the moment when Russia will be able to export anything；
and； consequently； that when at last we learn that we need Russia as a
market； she will be a market willing to receive gifts； but unable to pay for
anything at all。 And that is a state of affairs a great deal more serious to
ourselves than to the Russians； who can； after all； live by wandering about
their country and scratching the ground； whereas we depend on the sale of
our manufactured goods for the possibility of buying the food we cannot
grow ourselves。 If the Russians fail； their failure will affect not us alone。
It will； by depriving her of a market； lessen Germany's power of
recuperation； and consequently her power of fulfilling her engagements。
What； then； is to happen to France？ And； if we are to lose our market in
Russia； and find very much weakened markets in Germany and France； we
shall be faced with an ever…increasing burden of unemployment； with the
growth； in fact； of the very conditions in which alone we shall ourselves
be unable to recover from the war。 In such conditions； upheaval in
England would be possible； and； for the dispassionate observer； there is a
strange irony in the fact that the Communists desire that upheaval； and； at
the same time； desire a rebirth of the Russian market which would tend to
make that upheaval unlikely； while those who most fear upheaval are
precisely those who urge us； by making recovery in Russia impossible； to
improve the chances of collapse at home。 The peasants in Russia are not
alone in wanting incompatible things。
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