the.world.is.flat-第84章

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good　we　are　doing　in　these　areas。　If　you　are　making　money　and　being　productive　and　
raising　your　standard　of　living；　you're　not　sitting　around　thinking；　Who　did　this　
to　us？　or　Why　is　our　life　so　bad？〃　
There　is　a　lot　of　truth　to　this。　Countries　whose　workers　and　industries　are　woven　
into　a　major　global　supply　chain　know　that　they　cannot　take　an　hour；　a　week；　or　a　
month　off　for　war　without　disrupting　industries　and　economies　around　the　world　and　
thereby　risking　the　loss　of　their　place　in　that　supply　chain　for　a　long　time；　which　
could　be　extremely　costly。　For　a　country　with　no　natural　resources；　being　part　of　
a　global　supply　chain　is　like　striking　oil…oil　that　never　runs　out。　And　therefore；　
getting　dropped　from　such　a　chain　because　you　start　a　war　is　like　having　your　oil　
wells　go　

dry　or　having　someone　pour　cement　down　them。　They　will　not　come　back　anytime　soon。　
〃You　are　going　to　pay　for　it　really　dearly；〃　said　Glenn　E。　Neland；　senior　vice　
president　for　worldwide　procurement　at　Dell；　when　I　asked　him　what　would　happen　to　
a　major　supply…chain　member　in　Asia　that　decided　to　start　fighting　with　its　neighbor　
and　disrupt　the　supply　chain。　〃It　will　not　only　bring　you　to　your　knees　＇today＇；　but　
you　will　pay　for　a　long　time…because　you　just　won't　have　any　credibility　if　you　
demonstrate　you　are　going　to　go　＇off＇　the　political　deep　end。　And　China　is　just　now　
starting　to　develop　a　level　of　credibility　in　the　business　community　that　it　is　
creating　a　business　environment　you　can　prosper　in…with　transparent　and　consistent　
rules。〃　Neland　said　that　suppliers　regularly　ask　him　whether　he　is　worried　about　China　
and　Taiwan；　which　have　threatened　to　go　to　war　at　several　points　in　the　past　half　
century；　but　his　standard　response　is　that　he　cannot　imagine　them　〃doing　anything　
more　than　flexing　muscles　with　each　other。〃　Neland　said　he　can　tell　in　his　
conversations　and　dealings　with　companies　and　governments　in　the　Dell　supply　chain；　
particularly　the　Chinese；　that　〃they　recognize　the　opportunity　and　are　really　hungry　


to　participate　in　the　same　things　they　have　seen　other　countries　in　Asia　do。　They　
know　there　is　a　big　economic　pot　at　the　end　of　the　rainbow　and　they　are　really　after　
it。　We　will　spend　about　35　billion　producing　parts　this　year；　and　30　percent　of　that　
is　＇in＇　China。〃　
If　you　follow　the　evolution　of　supply　chains；　added　Neland；　you　see　the　prosperity　
and　stability　they　promoted　first　in　Japan；　and　then　in　Korea　and　Taiwan；　and　now　
in　Malaysia；　Singapore；　the　Philippines；　Thailand；　and　Indonesia。　Once　countries　get　
embedded　in　these　global　supply　chains；　〃they　feel　part　of　something　much　bigger　than　
their　own　businesses；〃　he　said。　Osamu　Watanabe；　the　CEO　of　the　Japan　External　Trade　
Organization　（JETRO）；　was　explaining　to　me　one　afternoon　in　Tokyo　how　Japanese　
companies　were　moving　vast　amounts　of　low…and　middle…range　technical　work　and　
manufacturing　to　China；　doing　the　basic　fabrication　there；　and　then　bringing　it　back　
to　Japan　for　final　assembly。　Japan　was　doing　this　despite　a　bitter　legacy　of　mistrust　
between　the　two　countries；　which　was　intensified　by　the　Japanese　invasion　of　China　
in　the　last　century。　Historically；　he　noted；　a　strong　Japan　and　a　strong　

China　have　had　a　hard　time　coexisting。　But　not　today；　at　least　not　for　the　moment。　
Why　not？　I　asked。　The　reason　you　can　have　a　strong　Japan　and　a　strong　China　at　the　
same　time；　he　said；　〃is　because　of　the　supply　chain。〃　It　is　a　win…win　for　both。　
Obviously；　since　Iraq；　Syria；　south　Lebanon；　North　Korea；　Pakistan；　Afghanistan；　and　
Iran　are　not　part　of　any　major　global　supply　chains；　all　of　them　remain　hot　spots　
that　could　explode　at　any　time　and　slow　or　reverse　the　flattening　of　the　world。　As　
my　own　notebook　story　attests；　the　most　important　test　case　of　the　Dell　Theory　of　
Conflict　Prevention　is　the　situation　between　China　and　Taiwan…since　both　are　deeply　
embedded　in　several　of　the　world's　most　important　computer；　consumer　electronics；　
and；　increasingly；　software　supply　chains。　The　vast　majority　of　computer　components　
for　every　major　company　comes　from　coastal　China；　Taiwan；　and　East　Asia。　In　addition；　
Taiwan　alone　has　more　than　100　billion　in　investments　in　mainland　China　today；　and　
Taiwanese　experts　run　many　of　the　cutting…edge　Chinese　high…tech　manufacturing　
companies。　
It　is　no　wonder　that　Craig　Addison；　the　former　editor　of　Electronic　Business　Asia　
magazine；　wrote　an　essay　for　the　International　Herald　Tribune　（September　29；　2000）；　
headlined　〃A　'Silicon　Shield'　Protects　Taiwan　from　China。〃　He　argued　that　
〃Silicon…based　products；　such　as　computers　and　networking　systems；　form　the　basis　
of　the　digital　economies　in　the　United　States；　Japan　and　other　developed　nations。　
In　the　past　decade；　Taiwan　has　become　the　third…largest　information　technology　
hardware　producer　after　the　United　States　and　Japan。　Military　aggression　by　China　
against　Taiwan　would　cut　off　a　large　portion　of　the　world's　supply　of　these　
products　。　。　。　Such　a　development　would　wipe　trillions　of　dollars　off　the　market　value　
of　technology　companies　listed　in　the　United　States；　Japan　and　Europe。〃　Even　if　
China's　leaders；　like　former　president　Jiang　Zemin；　who　was　once　minister　of　
electronics；　lose　sight　of　how　integrated　China　and　Taiwan　are　in　the　world's　computer　
supply　chain；　they　need　only　ask　their　kids　for　an　update。　Jiang　Zemin's　son；　Jiang　
Mianheng；　wrote　Addison；　〃is　a　partner　in　a　wafer　fabrication　project　in　Shanghai　


with　Winston　Wang　of　Taiwan's　Grace　T。H。W。　Group。〃　And　it　is　not　just　Taiwanese。　
Hundreds　of　big　American　tech　companies　now　have　R　&　D　operations　in　China；　a　war　
that　disrupted　them　could　
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lead　not　only　to　the　companies　moving　their　plants　elsewhere　but　also　to　a　significant　
loss　of　R　&　D　investment　in　China；　which　the　Beijing　government　has　been　betting　on　
to　advance　its　development。　Such　a　war　could　also；　depending　on　how　it　started；　trigger　
a　widespread　American　boycott　of　Chinese　goods…if　China　were　to　snuff　out　the　
Taiwanese　democracy…which　would　lead　to　serious　economic　turmoil　inside　China。　
The　Dell　Theory　had　its　first　real　test　in　December　2004；　when　Taiwan　held　
parliamentary　elections。　President　Chen　Shui…bian's　pro…independence　Democratic　
Progressive　Party　was　expected　to　win　the　legislative　runoff　over　the　main　opposition　
Nationalist　Party；　which　favored　closer　ties　with　Beijing。　Chen　framed　the　election　
as　a　popular　referendum　on　hisproposal　to　write　anew　constitution　that　would　formally　
enshrine　Taiwan's　independence；　ending　the　purposely　ambiguous　status　quo。　Had　Chen　
won　and　moved　ahead　on　his　agenda　to　make　Taiwan　its　own　motherland；　as　opposed　to　
maintaining　the　status　quo　fiction　that　it　is　a　province　of　the　mainland；　it　could　
have　led　to　a　Chinese　military　assault　on　Taiwan。　Everyone　in　the　region　was　holding　
his　or　her　breath。　And　what　happened？　Motherboards　won　over　motherland。　A　majority　
of　Taiwanese　voted　against　the　pro…independence　governing　party　legislative　
candidates；　ensuring　that　the　DPP　would　not　have　a　majority　in　parliament。　I　believe　
the　message　Taiwanese　voters　were　sending　was　not　that　they　never　want　Taiwan　to　be　
independent。　It　was　that　they　do　not　want　to　upset　the　status　quo　right　now；　which　
has　been　so　beneficial　to　so　many　Taiwanese。　The　voters　seemed　to　understand　clearly　
how　interwoven　they　had　become　with　the　mainland；　and　they　wisely　opted　to　maintain　
their　de　facto　independence　rather　than　force　de　jure　independence；　which　might　have　
triggered　a　Chinese　invasion　and　a　very　uncertain　future。　
Warning：　What　I　said　when　I　put　forth　the　McDonald's　theory；　I　would　repeat　even　more　
strenuously　with　the　Dell　Theory：　It　does　not　make　wars　obsolete。　And　it　does　not　
guarantee　that　governments　will　not　engage　in　wars　of　choice；　even　governments　that　
are　part　of　major　supply　chains。　To　suggest　so　would　be　naive。　It　guarantees　only　
that　governments　whose　countries　are　enmeshed　in　global　supply　chains　will　have　
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to　think　three　times；　not　just　twice；　about　engaging　in　anything　but　a　war　of　
self…defense。　And　if　they　choose　to　go　to　war　anyway；　the　price　they　will　pay　will　
be　ten　times　higher　than　it　was　a　decade　ago　and　probably　ten　times　higher　than　whatever　
the　leaders　of　that　country　think。　It　is　one　thing　to　lose　your　McDonald's。　It's　quite　
another　to　fight　a　war　that　costs　you　your　place　in　a　twenty…first…century　supply　
chain　that　may　not　come　back　around　for　a　long　time。　
While　the　biggest　test　case　of　the　Dell　Theory　is　China　versus　Taiwan；　the　fact　is　
that　the　Dell　Theory　has　already　proved　itself　to　some　degree　in　the　case　of　India　
and　Pakistan；　the　context　in　which　I　first　started　to　think　about　it。　I　happened　to　
be　in　India　in　2002；　when　its　just…in…time　services　supply　chains　ran　into　some　very　
old…time　geopolitics…and　the　supply　chain　won。　In　the　case　of　India　and　Pakistan；　


the　Dell　Theory　was　working　on　only　one　party…India…but　it　still　had　a　major　impact。　
India　is　to　the　world's　knowledge　and　service　supply　chain　what　China　and　Taiwan　are　
to　the　manufacturing　ones。　By　now　readers　ofthis　book　know　all　thehighlights：　General　
Electric's　biggest　research　center　outside　the　United　States　is　in　Bangalore；　with　
seventeen　hundred　Indian　engineers；　designers；　and　scientists。　The　brain　chips　for　
many　brand…name　cell　phones　are　designed　in　Bangalore。　Renting　a　car　from　Avis　online？　
It's　managed　in　Bangalore。　Tracing　your　lost　luggage　on　Delta　or　British　Airways　is　
done　from　Bangalore；　and　the　backroom　accounting　and　computer　maintenance　for　scores　
of　global　firms　are　done　from　Bangalore；　Mumbai；　Chennai；　and　other　major　Indian　
cities。　Here's　what　happened：　On　May　31；　2002；　State　Department　spokesman　Richard　
Boucher　issued　a　travel　advisory　saying；　〃We　urge　American　citizens　currently　in　India　
to　depart　the　country；〃　because　the　prospect　of　a　nuclear　exchange　with　Pakistan　was　
becoming　very　real。　Both　nations　were　massing　troops　on　their　borders；　intelligence　
reports　were　suggesting　that　they　both　might　be　dusting　off　their　nuclear　warheads；　
and　CNN　was　flashing　images　of　people　flooding　out　of　India。　The　global　American　firms　
that　had　moved　their　back　rooms　and　R　&　D　operations　to　Bangalore　were　deeply　unnerved。　

〃I　was　actually　surfing　on　the　Web；　and　I　saw　a　travel　advisory　come　up　on　India　on　
a　Friday　evening/'　said　Vivek　Paul；　president　of　Wipro；　which　manages　backroom　
operations　from　India　of　many　American　multinationals。　〃As　soon　as　I　saw　that；　I　said；　
'Oh　my　gosh；　every　customer　that　we　have　is　going　to　have　a　million　questions　on　this。'　
It　was　the　Friday　before　a　long　weekend；　so　over　the　weekend　we　at　Wipro　developed　
a　fail…safe　business　continuity　plan　for　all　of　our　customers。〃　While　Wipro's　
customers　were　pleased　to　see　how　on　top　of　things　the　company　was；　many　of　them　were　
nevertheless　rattled。　This　was　not　in　the　plan　when　they　decided　to　outsource　
mission…critical　research　and　operations　to　India。　Said　Paul；　〃I　had　a　CIO　from　one　
of　our　big　American　clients　send　me　an　e…mail　saying；　1　am　now　spending　a　lot　of　time　
looking　for　alternative　sources　to　India。　I　don't　think　you　want　me