the.world.is.flat-第33章

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


If　your　office　can't　reach　you　on　this；　then　you　must　be　on　the　International　Space　
Station。　
…From　a　New　York　Times　article　about　HP's　new　PocketPC；　
July　29；　2004　
I　am　on　the　bullet　train　speeding　southwest　from　Tokyo　to　Mishima。　The　view　is　
spectacular：　fishing　villages　on　my　left　and　a　snow…dusted　Mt。　Fuji　on　my　right。　My　


colleague　Jim　Brooke；　the　Tokyo　bureau　chief　for　The　New　York　Times；　is　sitting　across　
the　aisle　and　paying　no　attention　to　the　view。　He　is　engrossed　in　his　computer。　So　
am　I；　actually；　but　he's　online　through　a　wireless　connection；　and　I'm　just　typing　
away　on　a　column　on　my　unconnected　laptop。　Ever　since　we　took　a　cab　together　the　other　
day　in　downtown　Tokyo　and　Jim　whipped　out　his　wireless…enabled　laptop　in　the　backseat　
and　e…mailed　me　something　through　Yahoo！；　I　have　been　exclaiming　at　the　amazing　degree　
of　wireless　penetration　and　connectivity　in　Japan。　Save　for　a　few　remote　islands　and　
mountain　villages；　if　you　have　a　wireless　card　in　your　computer；　or　any　Japanese　cell　
phone；　you　can　get　online　anywhere…from　deep　inside　the　subway　stations　to　the　bullet　
trains　speeding　through　the　countryside。　Jim　knows　I　am　slightly　obsessed　with　the　
fact　that　Japan；　not　to　mention　most　of　the　rest　of　the　world；　has　so　much　better　
wireless　connectivity　than　America。　Anyway；　Jim　likes　to　rub　it　in。　
〃See；　Tom；　I　am　online　right　now；〃　he　says；　as　the　Japanese　countryside　whizzes　by。　
〃A　friend　of　mine　who's　the　Times's　stringer　in　Alma　Ata　just　had　a　baby　and　I　am　
congratulating　him。　He　had　a　baby　girl　last　night。〃　Jim　keeps　giving　me　updates。　〃Now　
I'm　reading　the　frontings！〃　…a　summary　ofthe　day's　New　York　Times　headlines。　Finally；　
I　ask　Jim；　who　is　fluent　in　Japanese；　to　ask　the　train　conductor　to　come　over。　He　
ambles　by。　I　ask　Jim　to　ask　the　conductor　how　fast　we　are　going。　They　rattle　back　
and　forth　in　Japanese　for　a　few　seconds　before　Jim　translates：　〃240　kilo

meters　per　hour。〃　I　shake　my　head。　We　are　on　a　bullet　train　going　240　km　per　hour…that's　
150　mph…and　my　colleague　is　answering　e…mail　from　Kazakhstan；　and　I　can't　drive　from　
my　home　in　suburban　Washington　to　downtown　DC　without　my　cell　phone　service　being　
interrupted　at　least　twice。　The　day　before；　I　was　in　Tokyo　waiting　for　an　appointment　
with　Jim's　colleague　Todd　Zaun；　and　he　was　preoccupied　with　his　Japanese　cell　phone；　
which　easily　connects　to　the　Internet　from　anywhere。　〃I　am　a　surfer；〃　Todd　explained；　
as　he　used　his　thumb　to　manipulate　the　keypad。　〃For　3　a　month　I　subscribe　to　this　
＇Japanese＇　site　that　tells　me　each　morning　how　high　the　waves　are　at　the　beaches　near　
my　house。　I　check　it　out；　and　I　decide　where　the　best　place　to　surf　is　that　day。〃　
（The　more　I　thought　about　this；　the　more　I　wanted　to　run　for　president　on　a　one…issue　
ticket：　〃I　promise；　if　elected；　that　within　four　years　America　will　have　as　good　a　
cell　phone　coverage　as　Ghana；　and　in　eight　years　as　good　as　Japan…provided　that　the　
Japanese　sign　a　standstill　agreement　and　won't　innovate　for　eight　years　so　we　can　
catch　up。〃　My　campaign　bumper　sticker　will　be　very　simple：　〃Can　You　Hear　Me　Now？〃）　
I　know　that　America　will　catch　up　sooner　or　later　with　the　rest　of　the　world　in　wireless　
technology。　It's　already　happening。　But　this　section　about　the　tenth　flattener　is　
not　just　about　wireless。　It　is　about　what　I　call　〃the　steroids。〃　I　call　certain　new　
technologies　the　steroids　because　they　are　amplifying　and　turbocharging　all　the　other　
flatteners。　They　are　taking　all　the　forms　of　collaboration　highlighted　in　this　
section…　outsourcing；　offshoring；　open…sourcing；　supply…chaining；　insourcing；　and　
in…forming…and　making　it　possible　to　do　each　and　every　one　of　them　in　a　way　that　is　
〃digital；　mobile；　virtual；　and　personal；〃　as　former　HP　CEO　Carly　Fiorina　put　it　in　
her　speeches；　thereby　enhancing　each　one　and　making　the　world　flatter　by　the　day。　
By　〃digital；〃　Fiorina　means　that　thanks　to　the　PC…Windows…Netscape…work　flow　


revolutions；　all　analog　content　and　processes…　everything　from　photography　to　
entertainment　to　communication　to　word　processing　to　architectural　design　to　the　
management　of　my　home　lawn　sprinkler　system…are　being　digitized　and　therefore　can　
be　shaped；　manipulated；　and　transmitted　over　computers；　the　Internet；　satellites；　
or　fiber…optic　cable。　By　〃virtual；〃　she　means　that　the　process　of　shaping；　ma162　
nipulating；　and　transmitting　this　digitized　content　can　be　done　at　very　high　speeds；　
with　total　ease；　so　that　you　never　have　to　think　about　it…thanks　to　all　the　underlying　
digital　pipes；　protocols；　and　standards　that　have　now　been　installed。　By　〃mobile；〃　
she　means　that　thanks　to　wireless　technology；　all　this　can　be　done　from　anywhere；　
with　anyone；　through　any　device；　and　can　be　taken　anywhere。　And　by　〃personal；〃　she　
means　that　it　can　be　done　by　you；　just　for　you；　on　your　own　device。　
What　does　the　flat　world　look　like　when　you　take　all　these　new　forms　of　collaboration　
and　turbocharge　them　in　this　way？　Let　me　give　just　one　example。　Bill　Brody；　the　
president　of　Johns　Hopkins；　told　me　this　story　in　the　summer　of　2004：　〃I　am　sitting　
in　a　medical　meeting　in　Vail　and　the　＇doctor＇　giving　a　lecture　quotes　a　study　from　
Johns　Hopkins　University。　And　the　guy　speaking　is　touting　a　new　approach　to　treating　
prostate　cancer　that　went　against　the　grain　of　the　current　surgical　method。　It　was　
a　minimally　invasive　approach　to　prostate　cancer。　So　he　quotes　a　study　by　Dr。　Patrick　
Walsh；　who　had　developed　the　state…of…the…art　standard　of　care　for　prostate　surgery。　
This　guy　who　is　speaking　proposes　an　alternate　method…which　was　controversial…but　
he　quotes　from　Walsh's　Hopkins　study　in　a　way　that　supported　his　approach。　When　he　
said　that；　I　said　to　myself；　That　doesn't　sound　like　Dr。　Walsh's　study。'　So　I　had　
a　PDA　＇personal　digital　assistant＇；　and　I　immediately　went　online　＇wirelessly＇　and　
got　into　the　Johns　Hopkins　portal　and　into　Medline　and　did　a　search　right　while　I　
was　sitting　there。　Up　come　all　the　Walsh　abstracts。　I　toggled　on　one　and　read　it；　
and　it　was　not　at　all　what　the　guy　was　saying　it　was。　So　I　raised　my　hand　during　the　
Q　and　A　and　read　two　lines　from　the　abstract；　and　the　guy　just　turned　beet　red。〃　
The　digitization　and　storage　of　all　the　Johns　Hopkins　faculty　research　in　recent　years　
made　it　possible　for　Brody　to　search　it　instantly　and　virtually　without　giving　it　
a　second　thought。　The　advances　in　wireless　technology　made　it　possible　for　him　to　
do　that　search　from　anywhere　with　any　device。　And　his　handheld　personal　computer　
enabled　him　to　do　that　search　personally…by　himself；　just　for　himself。　
What　are　the　steroids　that　made　all　this　possible？　
163　
One　simple　way　to　think　about　computing；　at　any　scale；　is　that　it　is　comprised　of　
three　things：　computational　capability；　storage　capability；　and　input/output　
capability…the　speed　by　which　information　is　drawn　in　and　out　of　the　computer/storage　
complexes。　And　all　of　these　have　been　steadily　increasing　since　the　days　of　the　first　
bulky　mainframes。　This　mutually　reinforcing　progress　constitutes　a　significant　
steroid。　As　a　result　of　it；　year　after　year　we　have　been　able　to　digitize；　shape；　
crunch；　and　transmit　more　words；　music；　data；　and　entertainment　than　ever　before。　
For　instance；　MIPS　stands　for　〃millions　of　instructions　per　second；〃　and　it　is　one　
measure　of　the　computational　capability　of　a　computer's　microchips。　In　1971；　the　Intel　


4004　microprocessor　produced　。06　MIPS；　or　60；000　instructions　per　second。　Today's　
Intel　Pentium　4　Extreme　Edition　has　a　theoretical　maximum　of　10。8　billion　instructions　
per　second。　In　1971；　the　Intel　4004　microprocessor　contained　2；300　transistors。　
Today's　Itanium　2　packs　410　million　transistors。　Meanwhile；　inputting　and　outputting　
data　have　leaped　ahead　at　a　staggering　rate。　At　the　speeds　that　disk　drives　operated　
back　in　the　early　days　of　286　and　386　chips；　it　would　have　taken　about　a　minute　to　
download　a　single　photo　from　my　latest　digital　camera。　Today　I　can　do　that　in　less　
than　a　second　on　a　USB　2。0　disk　drive　and　a　Pentium　processor。　The　amount　of　stuff　
you　can　now　store　to　input　and　output　〃is　off　the　charts；　thanks　to　the　steady　advances　
in　storage　devices；〃　said　Craig　Mundie；　Microsoft's　chief　technology　officer。　
〃Storage　is　growing　exponentially；　and　this　is　really　as　much　a　factor　in　the　
revolution　as　anything　else。〃　It's　what　is　allowing　all　forms　of　content　to　become　
digital　and　to　some　extent　portable。　It　is　also　becoming　cheap　enough　that　you　can　
put　massive　amounts　on　even　the　personal　devices　people　carry　around　with　them。　Five　
years　ago；　no　one　would　have　believed　that　you　would　be　able　to　sell　iPods　with　40　
gigabytes　ofstorage；　capable　of　holding　thousands　of　songs；　for　prices　that　teenagers　
could　afford。　Now　it's　seen　as　ho…hum。　And　when　it　comes　to　moving　all　these　bits　
around；　the　computing　world　has　been　turbocharged。　Advances　in　fiber　optics　will　soon　
allow　a　single　fiber　to　carry　1　terabit　per　second。　With　48　fibers　in　a　cable；　that's　
48　terabits　per　second。　Henry　Schacht；　the　former　CEO　of　Lucent；　which　specialized　
in　this　technology；　pointed　out　that　with　that　much　capacity；　you　could　〃transmit　
all　the　

printed　material　in　the　world　in　minutes　in　a　single　cable。　This　means　unlimited　
transmitting　capacity　at　zero　incremental　cost。〃　Even　though　the　speeds　that　Schacht　
was　talking　about　apply　only　to　the　backbone　of　the　fiber　network；　and　not　that　last　
mile　into　your　house　and　into　your　computer；　we　are　still　talking　about　a　quantum　
leap　forward。　
In　The　Lexus　and　the　Olive　Tree；　I　wrote　about　a　1999　Qwest　commercial　showing　a　
businessman；　tired　and　dusty；　checking　in　to　a　roadside　motel　inthe　middle　of　nowhere。　
He　asks　the　bored…looking　desk　clerk　whether　they　have　room　service　and　other　
amenities。　She　says　yes。　Then　he　asks　her　whether　entertainment　is　available　on　his　
room　television；　and　the　clerk　answers　in　a　what…do…you…think…you…idiot　monotone；　
〃All　rooms　have　every　movie　ever　made　in　every　language；　anytime；　day　or　night。〃　I　
wrote　about　that　back　then　as　an　example　of　what　happens　when　you　get　connected　to　
the　Internet。　Today　it　is　an　example　of　how　much　you　can　now　get　disconnected　from　
the　Internet；　because　in　the　next　few　years；　as　storage　continues　to　advance　and　become　
more　and　more　miniaturized；　you　will　be　able　to　buy　enough　storage　to　carry　many　of　
those　movies　around　in　your　pocket。　
Then　add　another　hardware　steroid　to　the　mix：　file　sharing。　It　started　with　Napster　
paving　the　way　for　two　of　us　to　share　songs　stored　on　each　other's　computers。　〃At　
its　peak；〃　according　to　Howstuffworks。com；　〃Napster　was　perhaps　the　most　popular　
Website　ever　created。　In　less　than　a　year；　it　went　from　zero　to　60　million　visitors　
per　month。　Then　it　was　shut　down　by　a　court　order　because　of　copyright　violations；　


and　wouldn't　re…launch　until　2003　as　a　legal　music…download　site。　The　original　Napster　
became　so　popular　so　quickly　because　it　offered　a　unique　product…free　music　that　you　
could　obtain　nearly　effortlessly　from　a　gigantic　database。〃　That　database　was　
actually　a　file…sharing　architecture　by　which　Napster　facilitated　a　connection　
betwe