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camshaft plant in America�察�where more skilled American workers can do the finished
machining operations�察�which are most critical to quality。 In this way�察�ASIMCO's
American customers receive the benefit of a China supply chain and at the same time
have the comfort of dealing with a known�察�American supplier。
The average wage of a high´skilled machinist in America is 3��000 to 4��000 a month。
The average wage for a factory worker in China is about 150 a month。 In addition�察�
ASIMCO is required to participate in a Chinese government´sponsored pension plan
covering heath care�察�housing�察�and retirement benefits。 Between 35 and 45 percent of
a Chinese worker's monthly wage goes directly to the local labor bureau to cover these
benefits。 The fact that health insurance in China is so much cheaper´because of lower
wages�察�much more limited health service offerings�察�and no malpractice
suits´;certainly makes China an attractive place to expand and add employees�察─�
explained Perkowski。 ;Anything which can be done to reduce a U。S。 company's liability
for medical coverage would be a plus in keeping jobs in the U。S。;
By taking advantage of the flat world to collaborate this way´ between onshore and
offshore factories�察�and between high´wage�察�high´skilled American workers close to
their market and low´wage Chinese workers close to theirs´said Perkowski�察 �we make
our American company more competitive�察�soit is getting more orders and we are actually
growing the business。 And that is what many in the U。S。 are missing when they talk
about offshoring。 Since the acquisition�察�for example�察�we have doubled our business
with Cummins�察�and our business with Caterpillar has grown significantly。 All of our
customers are exposed to global competition and really need their supply base to the
do the right thing as far as cost competitiveness。 They want to work with suppliers
who un´
125
derstand the flat world。 When I went to visit our U。S。 customers to explain our
strategy for the camshaft business�察�they were very positive about what we were doing�察�
because they could see that we were aligning our business in a way that was going
to enable them to be more competitive。;
This degree of collaboration has been possible only in the last couple of years。 ;We
could not have done what we have done in China in 1983 or 1993�察─�said Perkowski。 ;Since
1993�察�a number of things have come together。 For example�察�people always talk about
how much the Internet has benefited the U。S。 The point I always make is that China
has benefited even more。 What has held China back in the past was the inability of
people outside China to get information about the country�察�and the inability of people
inside China to get information about the rest of the world。 Prior to the Internet�察�
the only way to close that information gap was travel。 Now you can stay home and do
it with the Internet。 You could not operate our global supply chain without it。 We
now just e´mail blueprints over the Internet´we don't even need FedEx。;
The advantages for manufacturing in China�察�for certain industries�察�are becoming
overwhelming�察�added Perkowski�察�and cannot be ignored。 Either you get flat or you'll
be flattened by China。 ;If you are sitting in the U。S。 and don't figure out how to
get into China�察─�he said�察 �in ten or fifteen years from now you will not be a global
leader。;
Now that China is in the WTO�察�a lot of traditional�察�slow�察�inefficient�察�and protected
sectors of the Chinese economy are being exposed to some withering global
competition´something received as warmly in Canton�察�China�察�as in Canton�察�Ohio。 Had
the Chinese government put WTO membership to a popular vote�察 �it never would have
passed�察─�said PatPowers�察�whoheaded the U。S。´China Business Council office inBeijing
during the WTO accession。 A key reason why China's leadership sought WTO membership
was to use it as a clubto force China's bureaucracy to modernize and take down internal
regulatory walls and pockets for arbitrary decision making。 China's leadership ;knew
that
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China had to integrate globally and that many of their existing institutions would
simply not change and reform�察�and so they used the WTO as leverage against their own
bureaucracy。 And for the last two and half years they've been slugging it out。;
Over time�察�adherence to WTO standards will make China's economy even flatter and more
of a flattener globally。 But this transition will not be easy�察�and the chances of
a political or economic crackup that disrupts or slows this process are not
insignificant。 But even if China implements all the WTO reforms�察�it won't be able
to rest。 It will soon be reaching a point where its ambitions for economic growth
will require more political reform。 China will never root out corruption without a
free press and active civil society institutions。 It can never really become efficient
without a more codified rule of law。 It will never be able to deal with the inevitable
downturns in its economy without a more open political system that allows people to
vent their grievances。 To put it another way�察�China will never be truly flat until
it gets over that huge speed bump called ;political reform。;
It seems to be heading in that direction�察�but it still has a long way to go。 I like
the way a U。S。 diplomat in China put it to me in the spring of 2004�此 �China right
now is doing titillation�察�notprivatization。 Reform here is translucent´and sometimes
it is quite titillating�察�because you can see the shapes moving behind the screen´but
it is not transparent。 ��The government still just gives�А�the information ��about the
economy�А�to a few companies and designated interest groups。; Why only translucent�拭�
I asked。 He answered�察 �Because if you are fully transparent�察�what do you do with the
feedback�拭�They don't know how to deal with that question。 They cannot deal ��yet�А�with
the results of transparency。;
If and when China gets over that political bump in the road�察�I think it could become
not only a bigger platform for offshoring but another free´market version of the
United States。 While that may seem threatening to some�察�I think it would be an
incredibly positive development for the world。 Think about how many new products�察�
ideas�察�jobs�察�and consumers arose from Western Europe's and Japan's efforts to become
free´market democracies after World War II。 The process unleashed an
unprecedented period of global prosperity´and the world wasn't even flat then。 It
had a wall in the middle。 If India and China move in that direction�察�the world will
not only become flatter than ever but also�察�I am convinced�察�more prosperous than ever。
Three United States are better than one�察�and five would be better than three。
But even as a free´trader�察�I am worried about the challenge this will pose to wages
and benefits of certain workers in the United States�察�at least in the short run。 It
is too late for protectionism when it comes to China。 Its economy is totally
interlinked with those of the developed world�察�and trying to delink it would cause
economic and geopolitical chaos that could devastate the global economy。 Americans
and Europeans will have to develop new business models that will enable them to get
the best out of China and cushion themselves against some of the worst。 As BusinessWeek�察�
in its dramatic December 6�察�2004�察�cover story on ;The China Price�察─�put it�察 �Can China
dominate everything�拭�Of course not。America remains the world's biggest manufacturer�察�
producing 75�ァ�of what it consumes�察�though that's down from 90�ァ�in the mid´'90s。
Industries requiring huge R&D budgets and capital investment�察�such as aerospace�察�
pharmaceuticals�察�and cars�察�still have strong bases in the U。S。 。 。 。 America will
surely continue to benefit from China's expansion。; That said�察�unless America can
deal with the long´term industrial challenge posed bythe China price in so many areas�察�
;it will suffer a loss of economic power and influence。;
Or�察�to put it another way�察�if Americans and Europeans want to benefit from the
flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge
centers�察�they will all have to run at least as fast as the fastest lion´and I suspect
that lion will be China�察�and I suspect that will be pretty darn fast。
128
Flattener #7
Sup ply´Chain ing
Eating Sushi in Arkansas
I had never seen what a supply chain looked like in action until I visited Wal´Mart
headquarters in Bentonville�察�Arkansas。 My Wal´Mart hosts took me over to the
1。2´million´square´foot distribution center�察�where we climbed up to a viewing perch
and watched the show。 On one side of the building�察�scores of white Wal´Mart trailer
trucks were dropping off boxes of merchandise from thousands of different suppliers。
Boxes large and small were fed up a conveyor belt at each loading dock。 These little
conveyor belts fed into a bigger belt�察�like streams feeding into a powerful river。
Twenty´four hours a day�察�seven days a week�察�the suppliers' trucks feed the twelve
miles of conveyor streams�察�and the conveyor streams feed into a huge Wal´Mart river
of boxed products。 But that is just half the show。 As the Wal´Mart river flows along�察�
an electric eye reads the bar codes on each box on its way to the other side of the
building。 There�察�the river parts again into a hundred streams。 Electric arms from
each stream reach out and guide the boxes´ordered by particular Wal´Mart stores´ off
the main river and down its stream�察�where another conveyor belt sweeps them into a
waiting Wal´Mart truck�察�which will rush these particular products onto the shelves
of a particular Wal´Mart store somewhere in the country。 There�察�a consumer will lift
one of these products off the shelf�察�and the cashier will scan it in�察�and the moment
that happens�察�a signal will be generated。 That signal will go out across the Wal´Mart
network to the supplier of that product´whether that supplier's factory is in coastal
China or coastal Maine。 That signal will pop up on the supplier's computer screen
and prompt him to make another of that item and ship it via the Wal´Mart supply chain�察�
and the whole cycle will start anew。 So no sooner does your arm lift a product off
the local Wal´Mart's shelf and onto the checkout counter than another mechanical arm
starts making another one somewhere in the world。 Call it ;the Wal´Mart Symphony;
in multiple movements´with no finale。 It just plays over and over 24/7/365�此�delivery�察�
sorting�察�packing�察�distribution�察�buying�察�manufacturing�察�reordering�察�delivery�察�
sorting�察�packing 。 。 。
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Just one company�察�Hewlett´Packard�察�will sell four hundred thousand computers through
the four thousand Wal´Mart stores worldwide in one day during the Christmas season�察�
which will require HPto adjust its supply chain�察�to make sure that all ofits standards
interface with Wal´Mart's�察�so that these computers flow smoothly into the Wal´Mart
river�察�into the Wal´Mart streams�察�into the Wal´Mart stores。
Wal´Mart's ability to bring off this symphony on a global scale´moving 2。3 billion
general merchandise cartons a year down its supply chain into its stores´has made
it the most impor