tc.redstormrising-第6章

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ving　the　need　to　defend　the　Arab　states；　who　are　in　any　case　not　terribly　popular　with　the　American　Jewish　Zionist　munity。〃
Did　they　really　believe　this；　Sergetov　wondered；　did　they　actually　believe　the　United　States　would　sit　on　its　hands？　What　went　on　at　the　late　meeting　yesterday？
At　last　one　other　person　shared　his　concern。　〃So；　the　only　thing　we　have　to　do　is　conquer　Western　Europe；　rade？〃　a　candidate　member　asked。　〃Are　these　not　the　countries　against　whose　conventional　forces　you　warn　us　every　year？　Every　year　you　tell　us　of　the　threat　the　massed　NATO　armies　present　to　us；　and　now　you　say　casually　that　we　must　conquer　them？　Excuse　me；　rade　Defense　Minister；　but　do　not　France　and　England　have　their　own　nuclear　arsenals？　And　why　would　America　not　fulfill。　its　treaty　promise　to　use　nuclear　weapons　in　the　defense　of　NATO？〃
Sergetov　was　surprised　that　a　junior　member　had　put　the　issues　so　quickly　on　the　table。　He　was　more　surprised　that　the　Foreign　Minister　answered。　So；　another　piece　of　the　puzzle。　But　what　did　the　KGB　think　of　this？　Why　were　they　not　represented　here？　The　chairman　was　recovering　from　surgery；　but　there　should　have　been　someone　here…unless　that　had　been　taken　care　of　last　night。
〃Our　objectives　must　be　limited；　and　obviously　so。　This　presents　us　with　several　political　tasks。　First；　we　must　engender　a　feeling　of　security　in　America；　to　put　them　off　guard　until　it　is　too　late　for　them　to　react　forcefully。　Second；　we　must　attempt　to　unravel　the　NATO　alliance　in　a　political　sense。〃　The　Foreign　Minister　ventured　a　rare　smile。　〃As　you　know；　the　KGB　has　been　working　on　such　a　plan　for　the　past　several　years。　It　is　now　in　its　final　form。　I　will　outline　it　for　you。〃
He　did　so；　and　Sergetov　nodded　at　its　audacity　and　also　with　a　new　understanding　of　the　power　balance　in　this　room。　So；　it　was　the　KGB。　He　should　have　known。　But　would　the　rest　of　the　Politburo　fall　in　line？　The　minister　went　on；　〃You　see　how　it　would　work。　One　piece　after　another　would　fall　into　place。　Given　these　preconditions；　the　waters　so　thoroughly　muddied；　and　the　fact　that　we　would　proclaim　our　unwillingness　to　threaten　directly　the　two　independent　NATO　nuclear　powers；　we　feel　that　the　nuclear　risk；　while　real；　is　less　than　the　risk　that　we　already　face　in　our　economy。〃
Sergetov　leaned　back　in　his　leather　chair。　So；　there　it　was：　war　was　less　risky　than　a　cold；　hungry　peace。　It　had　been　decided。　Or　had　it？　Might　some　bination　of　other　Politburo　members　have　the　power　or　prestige　to　reverse　that　decision？　Could　he　dare　to　speak　out　against　this　madness？　Perhaps　a　judicious　question　first。
〃Do　we　have　the　ability　to　defeat　NATO？〃　He　was　chilled　by　the　glib　reply。
〃Of　course；〃　Defense　answered。　〃What　do　you　think　we　have　an　army　for？　We　have　already　consulted　with　our　senior　manders。〃
And　when　you　asked　us　last　month　for　more　steel　for　more　new　tanks；　rade　Defense　Minister；　was　your　excuse　that　NATO　was　too　weak？　Sergetov　asked　himself　angrily。　What　machinations　had　taken　place？　Have　they　even　spoken　with　their　military　advisers　yet；　or　had　the　Defense　Minister　exploited　his　vaunted　personal　expertise？　Had　the　General　Secretary　allowed　himself　to　be　bullied　by　Defense？　And　by　the　Foreign　Minister？　Had　he　even　objected？　Was　this　how　the　decisions　were　made　to　decide　the　fate　of　nations？　What　would　Vladimir　Ilych　have　thought　of　this？
〃rades；　this　is　madness！〃　said　Pyotr　Bromkovskiy。　The　oldest　man　there；　frail　and　past　eighty；　his　conversation　occasionally　rambled　about　the　idealistic　times　long　before；　when　munist　Party　members　really　believed　that　they　were　the　leading　wave　of　history。　The　Yezhovshchina　purges　had　ended　that。　〃Yes；　we　have　a　grave　economic　danger。　Yes；　we　have　a　grave　danger　to　the　security　of　the　State…but　do　we　replace　this　with　a　greater　danger？　Consider　what　can　happen…how　long；　rade　Defense　Minister；　before　you　can　initiate　your　conquest　of　NATO？〃
〃I　am　assured　that　we　can　have　our　army　fully　ready　for　bat　operations　in　four　months。〃
〃Four　months。　I　presume　that　we　will　have　fuel　four　months　from　now　…enough　fuel　to　begin　a　war！〃　Petya　was　old；　but　no　one's　fool。
〃rade　Sergetov。〃　The　General　Secretary　gestured　down　the　table；　dodging　his　responsibility　yet　again。
Which　side　to　take？　The　young　candidate　member　made　a　swift　decision。　〃Inventories　of　light　fuels…gasoline；　diesel；　et　cetera…are　high　at　the　moment；〃　Sergetov　had　to　admit。　〃We　always　use　the　cold…weather　months…the　time　when　usage　of　these　fuels　is　lowest…to　build　up　our　stocks；　and　added　to　this　are　our　strategic　defense　reserves；　enough　for　forty…five…〃
〃Sixty！〃　insisted　the　Defense　Minister。
〃Forty…five　days　is　a　more　realistic　figure；　rade。〃　Sergetov　held　his　position。　〃My　department　has　studied　fuel　consumption　by　military　units　as　part　of　a　program　to　increase　the　strategic　fuel　reserves；　something　neglected　in　past　years。　With　savings　in　other　consumption　and　certain　industrial　sacrifices；　we　might　expand　this　to　sixty　days　of　war　stocks；　perhaps　even　seventy；　plus　giving　you　other　stocks　to　expand　training　exercises。　The　near…term　economic　costs　would　be　slight；　but　by　midsummer　this　would　change　rapidly。〃　Sergetov　paused；　greatly　disturbed　at　how　easily　he　had　gone　along　with　the　unspoken　decision。　I　have　sold　my　soul　。　。　。　Or　have　I　acted　like　a　patriot？　Have　I　bee　like　the　other　men　around　this　'　table？　Or　have　I　merely　told　the　truth…and　what　is　truth？　All　he　could　be　certain　of；　he　told　himself；　is　that　he　had　survived。　For　now。　〃We　do　have　the　limited　ability；　as　I　told　you　yesterday；　to　restructure　our　distillate　production。　In　this　case；　my　staff　feels　that　a　nine…percent　increase　in　the　militarily　important　fuels　can　be　acplished…based　on　our　reduced　production。　I　caution；　however；　that　my　staff　analysts　also　feel　that　all　existing　estimates　of　fuel　usage　in　bat　conditions　are　grossly　optimistic。〃　A　last；　feeble　attempt　at　protest。
〃Give　us　the　fuel；　Mikhail　Eduardovich；〃　the　Defense　Minister　smiled　coldly；　〃and　we'll　see　it　is　properly　used。　My　analysts　estimate　that　we　can　acplish　our　goals　in　two　weeks；　perhaps　less…but　I　will　grant　you　the　strength　of　the　NATO　armies；　and　double　our　estimates　to　thirty　days。　We　will　still　have　more　than　enough。〃
〃And　what　if　NATO　discovers　our　intentions？〃　old　Petya　demanded。
〃They　will　not。　Already　we　are　preparing　our　maskirovka；　our　trickery。　NATO　is　not　a　strong　alliance。　It　cannot　be。　The　ministers　bicker　over　each　country's　defense　contribution。　Their　peoples　are　divided　and　soft　*　They　cannot　standardize　their　weapons；　and　because　of　it　their　supply　situation　is　utter　chaos。　And　their　most　important；　most　powerful　member　is　separated　from　Europe　by　five　thousand　kilometers　of　ocean。　The　Soviet　Union　is　only　an　overnight　train　ride　from　the　German　border。　But；　Petya；　my　old　friend；　I　will　answer　your　question。　If　everything　fails；　and　our　intentions　are　discovered；　we　can　always　stop；　say　that　we　were　running　an　exercise；　and　return　to　peacetime　conditions…and　be　no　worse　off　than　if　we　do　nothing　at　all。　We　need　strike　only　if　all　is　ready。　We　can　always　draw　back。〃
Everyone　at　the　table　knew　that　was　a　he；　though　a　clever　one；　because　no　one　had　the　courage　to　denounce　it　as　such。　What　army　had　ever　been　mobilized　to　be　called　back？　No　one　else　spoke　up　to　oppose　the　Defense　Minister。　Bromkovskiy　rambled　on　for　a　few　minutes；　quoting　Lenin's　stricture　about　endangering　the　home　of　World　Socialism；　but　even　that　drew　no　response。　The　danger　to　the　State…actually　the　danger　to　the　Party　and　the　Politburo…was　manifest。　It　could　not　bee　graver。　The　alternative　was　war。
Ten　minutes　later；　the　Politburo　voted。　Sergetov　and　his　eight　fellow　candidate　members　were　mere　spectators。　The　vote　was　eleven　to　two　for　war。　The　process　had　begun。

DATE…TIME　02/03　17：　15　COPY　01　OF　01　OF　SOVIET…REPORT
BC…Soviet　Report；　Bjt；　2310…FL…
TASS　Confirms　Oil　Field　Fire…FL…
EDS：　Moved　in　advance　for　SATURDAY　PMs…FL…
BY：　Patrick　Flynn…FC…
AP　Moscow　Correspondent
MOSCOW　（AP）…It　was　confirmed　today　by　TASS；　the　Soviet　news　agency；　that　〃a　serious　f　ire〃　had　taken　place　in　the　western　Siberian　region　of　the　Soviet　Union。
A　back…page　article　in　Pravda；　the　official　munist　Party　newspaper　noted　the　fire；　menting　that　the　〃heroic　fire　brigade〃　had　saved　countless　lives　by　its　skill　and　devotion　to　duty；　also　preventing　more　serious　damage　to　the　nearby　oil　facilities。
The　fire　was　reportedly　begun　by　a　〃technical　malfunction〃　in　the　automatic　refinery　control　systems　and　spread　rapidly；　but　was　swiftly　extinguished；　〃not　without　casualties　among　the　brave　men　detailed　to　attack　the　fire；　and　the　courageous　workmen　who　raced　heroically　to　their　rades'　side。〃
Though　somewhat　at　odds　with　Western　reports；　the　fire　in　the　area　did　go　out　more　quickly　than　had　been　expected。　Western　officials　are　now　speculating　about　a　highly　sophisticated　firefighting　system　built　into　the　Nizhnevartovs　facility　that　allowed　the　Soviets　to　extinguish　the　fire。
AB…BA…2…3　16：　01　EST…FL…
**END　OF　STORY**

3　…　Correlation　of　Forces

MOSCOW；　R。S。F。S。R。
〃They　didn't　ask　me；〃　explained　Chief　of　the　General　Staff　Marshal　Shavyrin。　〃They　didn't　ask　for　my　evaluation。　The　political　decision　was　already　made　when　they　called　me　in　Thursday　night。　When　was　the　last　time　the　Defense　Minister　asked　me　for　a　substantive　judgmental　decision？〃
〃And　what　did　you　say？〃　asked　Marshal　Rozhkov；　mander…in…Chief　of　Ground　Forces。　The　initial　response　was　a　grim；　ironic　smile。
〃That　the　armed　forces　of　the　Soviet　Union　were　able　to　carry　out　this　task；　given　four　months　of　preparation。〃
〃Four　months　。　。　。〃　Rozhkov　stared　out　the　window。　He　turned　back。　〃We　won't　be　ready。〃
〃Hostilities　will　mence　on　15　June；〃　Shavyrin　replied。　〃We　must　be　ready；　Yuri。　And　what　choice　did　I　have？　Would　you　have　had　me　say；　'I　am　sorry；　rade　General　Secretary；　but　the　Soviet　Army　is　unable　to　carry　out　this　task'？　I　would　have　been　dismissed　and　replaced　by　someone　more　tractable…you　know　who　my　replacement　will　be。　Would　you　rather　answer　to　Marshal　Bukharin…〃
〃That　fool！〃　Rozhkov　growled。　It　had　been　the　then…Lieutenant　General　Bukharin　whose　brilliant　plan　had　led　the　Soviet　Army　into　Afghanistan。　Professionally　a　nonentity；　his　political　connections　had　not　only　saved　him；　but　continued　his　career　to　near　the　pinnacle　of　uniformed　power。　A　clever　man；　Bukharin。　Never　involved　in　the　mountain　campaigns　himself；　he　could　point　to　his　brilliant　paper　plan　and　plain　that　it　had　been　poorly　executed；　after　he　had　moved　on　to　mand　of　the　Kiev　Military　District；　historically　the　shining　gate　of　marshal's　rank。
〃So；　would　you　have　him　in　this　office；　dictating　your　plans　to　you？〃　Shavyrin　asked。　Rozhkov　shook　his　head。　The　two　men　had　been　friends　and　rades　since　each　had　manded　a　tank　troop　in　the　same　regiment；　just　in　time　for　the　final　surge　toward　Vienna　in　1945。
〃How　are　we　to　go　about　it？〃　Rozhkov　asked。
〃Red　Storm；〃　the　Marshal　replied　simply。　Red　Storm　was　the　plan　for　a　mechanized　attack　into　West　Germany　and　the　Low　Countries。　Constantly　updated　for　changes　in　the　force　structures　of　both　sides；　it　called　for　a　two…to　three…week　campaign　mencing　after　a　rapid　escalation　of　tension　between　East　and　West。　Despite　this；　in　accordance　with　standard　Soviet　strategic　doctr