tc.redstormrising-第4章

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　crude；　which　means　that　it　contains　a　disproportionately　large　amount　of　the　most　valuable　fractions…those　which　we　use　to　make　gasoline；　kerosene；　and　diesel　fuel；　for　example。　The　net　loss　in　these　particular　areas　is　forty…four　percent　of　our　gasoline　production；　forty…eight　percent　of　kerosene；　and　fifty　percent　of　diesel。　These　figures　are　rough　calculations　I　made　on　the　flight　back；　but　they　should　be　accurate　to　within　two　percent。　My　staff　will　have　more　precise　figures　ready　in　a　day　or　so。〃
〃Half？〃　the　General　Secretary　asked　quietly。
〃Correct；　rade；〃　Sergetov　responded。
〃And　how　long　to　restore　production？〃
〃rade　General　Secretary；　if　we　bring　in　every　drilling　rig　and　operate　them　around　the　clock；　my　rough　estimate　is　that　we　can　begin　to　restore　production　in　twelve　months。　Clearing　the　site　of　wreckage　will　take　at　least　three　months；　and　another　three　will　be　needed　to　relocate　our　equipment　and　mence　drilling　operations。　Since　we　have　exact　information　for　well　locations　and　depths；　the　usual　element　of　uncertainty　is　not　part　of　the　equation。　Within　a　year…that　is；　six　months　after　we　mence　the　redrilling…we　will　begin　to　bring　the　production　wells　back　on　stream；　and　full　restoration　of　the　wells　will　be　achieved　within　two　more　years。　While　all　this　is　going　on；　we　will　need　to　replace　the　EOR　equipment　also…〃
〃And　what　might　that　be？〃　Defense　asked。
〃Enhanced　Oil　Recovery　systems；　rade　Minister。　Had　these　been　relatively　new　wells；　pressurized　from　underground　gas；　the　fires　might　have　lasted　for　weeks。　As　you　know；　rades；　these　are　wells　from　which　a　good　deal　of　oil　has　already　been　extracted。　To　enhance　production　we　have　been　pumping　water　into　the　wells；　which　has　the　effect　of　forcing　more　oil　out。　It　may　also　have　had　the　effect　of　damaging　the　oil　bearing　strata。　This　is　something　our　geologists　are　even　now　attempting　to　evaluate。　As　it　was；　when　power　was　lost；　the　force　driving　the　oil　from　the　ground　was　removed；　and　the　fires　in　the　production　fields　rapidly　began　to　run　out　of　fuel。　They　were　for　the　most　part　dying　out　when　my　flight　left　for　Moscow。〃
〃So　even　three　years　from　now　production　may　not　be　pletely　restored？〃　the　Minister　of　the　Interior　asked。
〃Correct；　rade　Minister。　There　is　simply　no　scientific　basis　for　making　an　estimate　of　total　production。　The　situation　we　have　here　has　never　happened　before；　either　in　the　West　or　the　East。　We　can　drill　some　test　wells　in　the　next　two　or　three　months　that　will　give　us　some　indications。　The　staff　engineers　I　left　behind　are　making　arrangements　to　begin　the　process　as　quickly　as　possible　with　equipment　already　at　the　site。〃
〃Very　well；〃　the　General　Secretary　nodded。　〃The　next　question　is　how　long　the　country　can　operate　on　this　basis。〃
Sergetov　went　back　to　his　notes。　〃rades；　there　is　no　denying　that　this　is　a　disaster　of　unprecedented　scale　for　our　economy。　The　winter　has　drawn　down　our　heavy　oil　inventories　more　than　usual。　Certain　energy　expenditures　must　remain　relatively　intact。　Electrical　power　generation　last　year；　for　example；　accounted　for　thirty…eight　percent　of　our　oil　products；　far　more　than　planned；　due　to　past　disappointments　in　coal　and　gas　production；　which　we　had　expected　to　reduce　oil　demand。　The　coal　industry　will　require　at　least　five　years　to　restore　due　to　failures　in　modernization。　And　gas　drilling　operations　are　currently　slowed　by　environmental　conditions。　For　technical　reasons　it　is　extremely　hard　to　operate　such　equipment　in　extreme　cold　weather…〃
〃So　make　those　lazy　bastards　on　the　drilling　crews　work　harder！〃　suggested　the　chief　of　the　Moscow　Party。
〃It　is　not　the　workers；　rade。〃　Sergetov　sighed。　〃It　is　the　machines。　Cold　temperature　affects　metal　more　than　men。　Tools　and　equipment　break　simply　because　they　are　brittle　with　cold。　Weather　conditions　make　resupply　of　spare　parts　to　the　camps　more　difficult。　Marxism…Leninism　cannot　dictate　the　weather。〃
〃How　difficult　would　it　be　to　conceal　the　drilling　operations？〃　Defense　asked。
Sergetov　was　surprised。　〃Difficult？　No；　rade　Minister；　impossible。　How　can　one　conceal　several　hundred　drilling　rigs；　each　twenty　to　forty　meters　high？　One　might　as　easily　attempt　to　conceal　Plesetsk's　missile　launch　plexes。〃　Sergetov　noticed　for　the　first　time　the　glances　being　exchanged　by　Defense　and　the　General　Secretary。
〃Then　we　must　reduce　the　consumption　of　oil　by　the　electrical　industry；〃　the　General　Secretary　pronounced。
〃rades；　allow　me　to　give　you　some　rough　figures　on　the　way　in　which　we　consume　our　oil　products。　Please　understand　that　I　am　going　from　memory；　since　the　annual　departmental　report　is　in　the　process　of　formulation　at　this　time。
〃Last　year　we　produced　589　million　tons　of　crude　oil。　This　fell　short　of　planned　production　by　thirty…two　million　tons；　and　the　amount　actually　produced　was　only　possible　due　to　the　artificial　measures　that　I　have　already　discussed。　Roughly　half　of　that　production　was　semirefined　into　mazut；　or　heavy　fuel　oil；　for　use　in　electrical　power　plants；　factory　boilers；　and　the　like。　Most　of　this　oil　simply　cannot　be　used　otherwise；　since　we　have　only　three…excuse　me；　now　only　two…refineries　with　the　sophisticated　catalytic　cracking　chambers　needed　to　refine　heavy　oil　into　light　distillate　products。
〃The　fuels　we　produce　serve　our　economy　in　many　ways。　As　we　have　already　seen；　thirty…eight　percent　goes　for　electrical　and　other　forms　of　power　generation；　and　fortunately　much　of　this　is　mazut。　Of　the　lighter　fuels　…　diesel；　gasoline；　and　kerosene…　agricultural　production　and　the　food　industries；　transportation　of　goods　and　modities；　public　consumption　and　passenger　transportation；　and　finally　military　uses；　these　alone　absorbed　more　than　half　of　last　year's　production。　In　other　words；　rades；　with　the　loss　of　the　Nizhnevartovsk　field　the　end　users　I　just　mentioned　account　for　more　than　we　are　able　to　produce；　leaving　nothing　at　all　for　metallurgy；　heavy　machinery；　chemical；　and　construction　uses；　not　to　mention　what　we　customarily　export　to　our　fraternal　socialist　allies　in　Eastern　Europe　and　throughout　the　world。
〃To　answer　your　specific　question；　rade　General　Secretary；　we　can　make　perhaps　a　modest　reduction　in　the　use　of　light　oils　in　electrical　power　usage；　but　even　now　we　have　a　serious　shortfall　in　electric　power　production；　resulting　in　occasional　brownouts　and　plete　power　outages。　Further　cuts　in　power　generation　will　adversely　affect　such　crucial　State　activities　as　factory　production　and　rail　transport。　You　will　recall　that　three　years　ago　we　experimented　with　altering　the　voltage　of　generated　power　to　conserve　fuels；　and　this　resulted　in　damage　to　electric　motors　throughout　the　Donets　industrial　basin。〃
〃What　about　coal　and　gas？〃
〃rade　General　Secretary；　coal　production　is　already　sixteen　percent　below　planned　output；　and　getting　worse；　which　has　caused　conversion　of　many　coal…fired　boilers　and　power　plants　to　oil。　Moreover；　the　conversion　of　such　facilities　from　oil　back　to　coal　is　costly　and　time　consuming。　Conversion　to　gas　is　a　much　more　attractive　and　cheaper　alternative　that　we　have　been　vigorously　pursuing。　Gas　production　is　also　under…plan；　but　it　is　improving。　We　had　expected　to　exceed　planned　targets　later　this　year。　Here　we　must　also　account　for　the　fact　that　much　of　our　gas　goes　to　Western　Europe。　It　is　from　this　that　we　gain　Western　currency　with　which　to　purchase　foreign　oil；　and；　of　course；　foreign　grain。〃
The　Politburo　member　in　charge　of　agriculture　winced　at　this　reference。　How　many　men；　Sergetov　wondered；　had　been　done　in　by　their　inability　to　make　the　Soviet　agricultural　industry　perform？　Not　the　current　General　Secretary；　of　course；　who　had　somehow　managed　to　advance　despite　his　failures　there。　But　good　Marxists　weren't　supposed　to　believe　in　miracles。　His　elevation　to　the　titular　chairmanship　had　had　its　own　price；　one　which　Sergetov　was　only　beginning　to　understand。
〃So；　what　is　your　solution；　Mikhail　Eduardovich？〃　the　Defense　Minister　inquired　with　unsettling　solicitude。
〃rades；　we　must　bear　this　burden　as　best　we　can；　improving　efficiency　at　every　level　of　our　economy。〃　Sergetov　didn't　bother　talking　about　increasing　imports　of　oil。　The　shortfall　he　had　explained　would　result　in　more　than　a　thirtyfold　increase　in　imports；　and　hard　currency　reserves　would　scarcely　allow　a　doubling　of　foreign　oil　purchases。　〃We　will　need　to　increase　production　and　quality　control　at　the　Barricade　drilling　rig　factory　in　Volgograd；　and　to　purchase　more　drilling　equipment　from　the　West　so　that　we　can　expand　exploration　and　exploitation　of　known　fields。　And　we　need　to　expand　our　construction　of　nuclear　reactor　plants。　To　conserve　what　production　we　do　have；　we　can　restrict　supplies　available　to　trucks　and　personal　automobilesthere　is　much　waste　in　this　sector；　as　we　all　know；　perhaps　as　much　as　a　third　of　total　usage。　We　can　temporarily　reduce　the　amount　of　fuel　consumed　by　the　military；　and　perhaps　also　divert　some　heavy　machine　production　from　military　hardware　to　necessary　industrial　areas。　We　face　three　very　hard　years…but　only　three；〃　Sergetov　summarized　on　an　upbeat　note。
〃rade；　your　experience　in　foreign　and　defense　areas　is　slim；　no？〃　the　Defense　Minister　asked。
〃I　have　never　pretended　otherwise；　rade　Minister；〃　Sergetov　answered　warily。
〃Then　I　will　tell　you　why　this　situation　is　unacceptable。　If　we　do　what　you　suggest；　the　West　will　learn　of　our　crisis。　Increased　purchases　of　oil　production　equipment　and　unconcealable　signs　of　activity　at　Nizhnevartovsk　will　demonstrate　to　them　all　too　clearly　what　is　happening　here。　That　will　make　us　vulnerable　in　their　eyes。　Such　vulnerability　will　be　exploited。　And；　at　the　same　time〃…he　pounded　his　fist　on　the　heavy　oak　table…　〃you　propose　reducing　the　fuel　available　to　the　forces　who　defend　us　against　the　West！〃
〃rade　Defense　Minister；　I　am　an　engineer；　not　a　soldier。　You　asked　me　for　a　technical　evaluation；　and　I　gave　it。〃　Sergetov　kept　his　voice　reasonable。　〃This　situation　is　very　serious；　but　it　does　not；　for　example；　affect　our　Strategic　Rocket　Forces。　Cannot　they　alone　shield　us　against　the　Imperialists　during　our　recovery　period？〃　Why　else　had　they　been　built？　Sergetov　asked　himself　All　that　money　sunk　into　unproductive　holes。　Wasn't　it　enough　to　be　able　to　kill　the　West　ten　times　over？　Why　twenty　times？　And　now　this　wasn't　enough？
〃And　it　has　not　occurred　to　you　that　the　West　will　not　allow　us　to　purchase　what　we　need？〃　the　Party　theoretician　asked。
〃When　have　the　capitalists　refused　to　sell　us…〃
〃When　have　the　capitalists　had　such　a　weapon　to　use　against　us？〃　the　General　Secretary　observed。　〃For　the　first　time；　the　West　has　the　ability　to　strangle　us　in　a　single　year。　What　if　now　they　also　prevent　our　purchase　of　grain？〃
Sergetov　hadn't　considered　that。　With　yet　another　disappointing　grain　harvest；　the　seventh　out　of　the　last　eleven　years；　the　Soviet　Union　needed　to　make　massive　purchases　of　wheat。　And　this　year　America　and　Canada　were　the　only　reliable　sources。　Bad　weather　in　the　Southern　Hemisphere　had　damaged　Argentina's　harvest；　and　to　a　lesser　extent　Australia's；　while　the　U。S。　and　Canada　had　enjoyed　their　customary　record　crops。　Negotiations　were　even　now　under　way　in　Washington　and　Ottawa　to　secure　such　a　purchase；　and　the　Americans　were　making　no　trouble　at　a